【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月亚洲电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
Action
A significantly better April for NJA telcos, outperforming most other sectors and
regional indices. A solid start to the result season, too — with Bharti, KT, XL, CT,
DTAC, DiGi and IDEA beating expectations so far. 3G auctions are starting to look
stretched in India (US$2.3bn per pan-India license so far), Indonesia is still
relatively appealing, while 3G momentum is picking up in China — Unicom also
revamped 3G plans this month.
􀁡 Catalysts
We continue to focus on companies with low gearing, strong cashflow, high
earnings visibility and potential for a turnaround.
Anchor themes
We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on Asia ex-Japan telcos, given concerns over
operational and regulatory risks.
Respite from underperformance
􀁣 Improving large caps, but mid caps still the leaders
Half of the top-10 performers in April were large caps, with China Unicom leading
the sector with a strong rally of 12%. Other heavyweights Telstra, KT and China
Mobile rose 3-6%. The market rewarded Indosat and XL for their solid execution in
1Q10 — stocks rallied 6-7%, while Telkom fell 2%. On the flip side, Thai telcos
were weak last month, and fell 8-11%. The bottom three performers were True,
ZTE and DTAC (absolute -9-11%; -12-14% versus sector). XL, SmarTone and
Axiata maintained their YTD leadership with gains of 93%, 37% and 28%,
respectively.
􀁤 Encouraging improvement in sector performance
NJA Telcos showed marked improvement in performance last month. With a 2.4%
rise, it outperformed 7/10 sectors and 7/11 regional equity indices.
􀁥 May: stocks in action — Axiata, XL, China Unicom, KT, PT Telkom
We expect Axiata and XL to rise driven by solid operational metrics. China Unicom
could report stronger 3G net adds from revamped price plans. KT could also
benefit from the government’s detailed guideline on marketing costs cap
regulation. Conversely, given the weak operational trends and limited positive
catalysts, we expect PT Telkom shares to remain weak.
􀁦 Marketing feedback
For Indonesia, while Clients were upbeat about XL’s potential growth, they
appeared concerned about Telkom’s inability to address competition. In Malaysia,
apart from potential upside from HSBB in Malaysia, dividend yields of TM and
Axiata were discussed.
􀁧 Earnings revisions in April
There were upward revisions in consensus earnings expectations for Axiata and
KT and downward revisions for RCOM and Telstra.