【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国寿险行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：47
        【目录或简介】：

Insurance - Life/Annuity
Coming Back to Life – Moving
to Attractive
Investment conclusion: We believe life insurers stand
out as an attractive play for an economic recovery, with
what we considered to be solid fourth quarter results
strengthening our view. Over the past five months,
valuation levels have come down significantly from their
highs, despite substantial upside surprises in capital,
rapidly declining credit losses, and earnings that have
exceeded expectations. We are raising our view on the
industry to Attractive and upgrading Prudential to
Overweight, and Unum Group to Equal-weight.
Conversely, we are downgrading RGA to Equal-weight.
What's new: The combination of strengthening top-line
growth trends, capital ratios well ahead of expectations,
rapidly dissipating credit concerns, and a sell-off in the
stock prices is leading us to recommend investors add
exposure to the life insurers. We see returns on equity
averaging 10% in 2010, strengthening to 11% in 2011,
which we would argue is not reflected in the average
price to book levels of 85% presently. This valuation
level implies a 12% cost of equity, which against the
backdrop of substantial excess capital, simply looks too
high. We now see roughly 20% upside for the group.
But still risk factors to consider: Declining equity
markets, an uncertain regulatory and taxation backdrop,
and a fragile economic environment are all near-term
risk factors. Longer term, we also believe sustainable
returns on equity will be meaningfully lower than prior to
the onset of the financial services crisis, but still well
ahead of what is reflected in today’s valuations.
Rating changes: Prudential’s upgrade to Overweight
reflects substantial growth momentum, significant
excess capital, and valuation. While we remain
concerned about revenue growth at Unum, our upgrade
to Equal-weight reflects stable operating results and
increased prospects for buybacks later this year. RGA’s
downgrade reflects persistent challenges with mortality
trends and headwinds driven by a strengthening dollar