【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国寿险行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：85
        【目录或简介】：

Operating fundamentals in the life insurance sector are challenging,
but we expect trends to improve as the year progresses. Balance
sheets are significantly healthier given the credit/equity market recovery
and equity raises. We expect earnings to benefit from the strong equity
market and a pickup in investment income due to higher variable
investment income and deployment of excess liquidity. Overall sales
results should improve as well. Depressed ROEs, elevated investment
losses, and sustained low interest rates are our primary concerns.
• Sales of individual products are likely to be depressed versus
historical levels but should pick up in 2010. We expect individual life
sales, which declined 9% in 2009, to rise at a mid-single-digit rate in
2010 given a more stable economy and reduced concerns about the
industry’s financial health. Variable annuity sales fell 18.7% in 2009 but
are projected to rise 8.3% in 2010 due to the market recovery, a renewed
focus on the product by key competitors and distributors, and easy
comps. Meanwhile, fixed annuity sales are likely to be weak as a result
of less favorable interest rates (lower yields, narrower credit spreads).
• High unemployment should weigh on sales of workplace products.
We project sales of group disability, group life, and supplemental
products to remain weak. Also, while the market recovery should lift
401(k) assets and fee income, our outlook for sales and flows is cautious.
• Competitive conditions vary by product, but overall pricing trends
have improved. We expect life reinsurance prices to remain firm due to
stable demand and tight capacity. Most insurers have raised variable
annuity prices and made the features less generous. Individual life prices
have risen as well to reflect higher reinsurance and securitization costs.
On the other hand, competition in group benefits products (group life and
disability) appears to have picked up as distressed insurers seek to retain
business. Pricing in the 401(k) market seems to be declining as well,
although returns remain relatively healthy.
• Recent outperformance could limit near-term upside in the sector,
but we believe select stocks still offer considerable long-term upside.
Our top picks are PRU and RGA. We expect PRU’s superior ROE and
EPS growth, robust capital position, and above-average BV growth to
drive outperformance. Our positive view of RGA is based on favorable
pricing trends in the U.S. life reinsurance market, strong foreign growth
potential, and its low-risk investment portfolio. We remain negative on
PFG and PNX due to poor business trends and high portfolio risk.
Table of Contents
Fundamentals Improving, Valuations Fair .............................3
Outlook and Results by Product.............................................5
Variable Annuities .......................................................................................................5
Fixed Annuities and Equity Indexed Annuities ...........................................................8
Individual Life Insurance.............................................................................................9
Group Insurance.........................................................................................................11
Long-Term Care and Supplemental Medical Products ..............................................12
Retirement and Pension Products ..............................................................................13
Life Reinsurance ........................................................................................................14
Annuity Sales and Assets......................................................15
Life Insurance Sales and Assets...........................................44
Life Reinsurance Assumed and In Force .............................54
Disability Sales Premiums.....................................................58
LTC, DC, 457, and Other Products........................................66
Index of Tables .......................................................................80
Index of Figures......................................................................82