【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月俄罗斯电力行业研究报告
        【作者】：URALSIB
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：67
        【目录或简介】：

Investment case becomes clearer. We reinstate coverage of
Russian distribution companies to take account of the substantial
improvements from the introduction of the new tariff system and
the appearance of reliable IFRS financial data. The distribution
segment makes up a significant portion of the Russian utilities
sector, generating approximately 40% of total revenues from lowvoltage
electricity distribution across Russia. A number of regional
distribution companies (MRSKs) and their controlling shareholder
MRSK Holding have become an important part of the Russian stock
market over the last six months, with improving liquidly.
Neutral to positive sector outlook. We have Buy
recommendations and the following DCF-derived target prices on
distribution companies: MOESK (MSRS) $0.076/share, Lenenergo
(LSNG) $1.22/share, Lenenergo preferred shares (LSNGP)
$1.13/share, MRSK Center and Volga (MRKP) $0.0127/share,
MRSK Center (MRKC) $0.054/share, MRSK South (MRKY)
$0.0092/share, MRSK Siberia (MRKS) $0.0142/share, MRSK
Ural (MRKU) $0.016/share, MRSK Holding $0.22/share for
ordinary shares and $0.152/share for preferred shares; Speculative
Buy MRSK North-Caucasus (MRKK) $16.96/share; Hold MRSK
Volga (MRKV) $0.0044/share, MRSK North-West (MRKZ)
$0.0053/share.
NEW TARIFF SYSTEM BRINGS NEW OPTIMISM
Profits to improve on back of new tariff system. The return on
RAB is to increase from 6% to 12% over a three year period.
The RAB tariff is the main driver. Transition to the new RAB tariff
system is unlocking shareholder value.
Tariff reform to continue in 2010. The approved energy-saving
law stipulates total long-term tariff regulations starting from 2011.
FINAL PARAMETERS STILL NOT FIXED FOR 75% OF REGIONS
Approved numbers may differ from expectations. RAB
expectations do not match the finally approved figures for 2010.
Valuation risks during potential consolidation. The final
consolidation scheme remains unknown, raising some risks.
Everything for investment. Distribution companies’ dividend
policies remain unclear.
SECTOR IS HIGLY UNDERVALUED
Upside on EV/EBITDA and DCF. The sector is highly undervalued
both on 2010E EV/EBITDA and on DCF.