【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国省份经济研究
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：16
        【目录或简介】：

Important structural changes are happening in China which are not

visible when looking at nationwide figures only. High growth is shifting

from the coast to inland provinces and low-cost labour supply is declining as

regional development initiatives – like the “Go West” strategy – are bearing fruit.

This will reinforce structural change in coastal regions towards higher value-added

products while labour-intensive manufacturing moves to inland provinces.

Pinning hopes on China to take the place of the US consumer is

asking too much. While private consumption offers some catch-up potential

especially in China‟s non-coastal provinces this will not be enough to offset the

loss in demand from the US. Moreover, much of the additional demand for

consumer goods will be served by local companies.

Still, opportunities exist in inner and coastal China. Aside from catch-up

potential in private consumption and labour cost advantages over coastal areas,

some inland provinces may serve as springboards to neighbouring countries like

Yunnan province for Vietnam or some western provinces for Central Asia.

Moreover, higher value-added production and increasing importance of non-wage

competitive factors should help to increase the importance of the services sector.

In addition to this study, we provide interactive maps and online

chartbooks for all Chinese provinces. These include easily comparable

charts on the macroeconomic environment, as well as public finances,

infrastructure development and labour market issues. They are useful monitoring

tools for keeping track of the changing dynamics in China at the provincial level

and put provincial developments into a national context.

February 25, 2010