如题,皆为最新的中国房产研究报告!!汇丰香港是2010年1月底的,大摩报告是2010年2月初的,高盛高华则是2010年2月底的!!
价格有小贵,但内容绝对物超所指!!!高盛主要是宏观分析,并分析了几个主要房产股;汇丰则是对30多个房产公司作了详细的分析。报告内容无论对房产投资还是股票投资都十分有价值!!!
大摩经济报告可作为参考一并阅读!
注:是英文的!
附页1:高盛附录:
1-Navigating the tightening cycle; introducing our bear-case valuation
2-Widening our target price discounts to our base-case 2010E NAV
3-We see our bear-case valuation as offering attractive entry levels
4-Balance sheet stress testing in our bear- and worst-case scenarios
5-Market concern on oversupply in 2010 is overdone, in our view
6-Yanlord: Upgrade to Buy on risk/reward after share price correction
7-Fantasia: To Conv. list on scale expansion and appealing valuation
8-SZI: Downgrade to Conv. Sell on market pressure Shenzhen
9-Greentown China: Downgrade to Sell on lower high-end volume
10-Franshion Properties: Fewer headwinds for commercial property
11-Shimao: Removing from our Conviction list, but still Buy
12-Appendix: Earnings, margins, gearing sensitivity analysis
附页2:汇丰简介:
1-Over 120 institutional investors and 38
property companies attended our two-
day event, Greater China Property Day
2-HK property developers have a
favourable outlook with positive
fundamental factors still intact
3-China property developers, in general,
maintain that the outlook is stable amid
recent noise on policy tightening
附页3:大摩简介:
1-China: Upgrade 2010 Forecasts on Improved
External Outlook
We have raised our forecasts for China’s GDP growth
and inflation in 2010 to 11% (from 10%) and 3.2% (from
2.5%), respectively, as the external outlook will likely be
stronger than we previously envisaged. Despite
heightened policy uncertainty weighing on market
sentiment of late, we believe recent policy action taken
by the Chinese authorities should be viewed as
precautionary measures to prevent a full-blown
overheating and a typical boom-bust cycle.
2-China Rebalancing, Not Overheating
The Chinese economy grew 10.7% YoY in real terms in
4Q09, recovering further from 9.1% in 3Q. On a
seasonally-adjusted basis, sequential QoQ growth
softened a tad further nevertheless, to 2.0% from 2.5%
in 3Q and 4.4% in 2Q. Aggressive policy stimulus has
successfully decoupled China from the deep recession
in the developed markets in the aftermath of the
late-2008 financial crisis. The strong economic rebound,
which commenced and was primarily policy-driven in
2Q09, has been sustained into 4Q09, and has become
more balanced between domestic versus external,
public versus private growth drivers.
Hong Kong: Monetary Conditions Monitor
(Inaugural Issue)
3-Monetary conditions are a key component of Hong
Kong’s macro fundamentals. Capital inflows
underpinned economic rebound in 2009 but uncertainty
abounds in 2010 including potential reversal of capital
flows upon policy tightening. We have therefore
launched the Hong Kong Monetary Conditions Monitor
to help investors to keep track of developments in Hong
Kong’s monetary space.
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