【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月台湾LED行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
Expect higher LED penetration: We revise up our 2010 forecast for
penetration of large-size LED backlight applications. We now expect LED
backlight penetration for mobile PCs, monitors and TVs to reach 90%, 16%
and 18%, up from previous forecasts of 86%, 7% and 11%, respectively.
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Marginally tight HB LED wafer supply: We believe HB LED wafer supply
will likely remain marginally tight (at a 98% sufficiency rate) in 2010E despite
the expected peak MOCVD shipment in 1H10. The required MOCVD
capacity ramp-up time after equipment installation should cap the magnitude
of oversupply even if it occurs in 2010. Our scenario analysis on backlight
LED wafer supply suggests marginally tight backlight LED wafer supply (for
handsets, NBs, monitors and TVs) assuming an average of 4.5-month
MOCVD capacity ramp-up time.
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Peak LED MOCVD installation in 1H10: We expect LED MOCVD shipment
to peak in 1H10 followed by a more disciplined 2H10 expansion on potential
oversupply concerns. We estimate global cumulative installed LED MOCVD
will reach 1,497 units by end-2010, more than 60% growth from end-2009.
Korea and Taiwan, the largest TFT LCD panel manufacturing countries
globally, are the most aggressive in expanding LED capacity. TFT LCD
panel makers’ march into the LED industry, in our view, is a long-term
concern for supply/demand and a threat to the standalone LED companies.
■
Opportunity to accumulate LED stocks on weakness: We believe the
recent Taiwan LED stock price correction, hit by oversupply concerns, was
overdone. We remain OVERWEIGHT Taiwan LED sector following our tightsupply
scenario assumption and the more than 20% share price correction
since end-2009. Epistar remains our top pick due to its leadership in LED
upstream. We also like I-Chiun as it is growing due to increased LED chip
shipment and immune to oversupply. We are NEUTRAL on Everlight due to
its still small exposure to LED backlight applications and also remain
NEUTRAL on Aixtron, as we are concerned about a potential slowdown in
the equipment market in 2H10.