【出版时间及名称】：JPM-AUSTRALIA AND NEWZEALAND-WEEKLY PROSPECTS-100301
      【作者】：jpm
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：23
      【目录或简介】：
In a week jam-packed with Aussie data, including the 4Q GDP print, the highlight
will be the RBA raffle, which is drawn Tuesday. Market pricing implies it
is a coin toss; traders place the probability of a 25bp rise at 56%. Our forecast
is that there will be no change although, like that of the market, our level of
conviction is low. The case for a hike is convincing, but it was strong last
month when the RBA bucked unanimous expectations for a hike. The clouds
of doubt around the consumer remain, as does the apparent anxiety about
the tail risks associated with recent global events. So, on balance, we are
sticking with our “on hold” call. Just about everyone agrees the cash rate is
too low; it will be at least 100bp higher by the end of the year. Our lot as
economists, though, is to pick the timing of the rate rises as well as their size.
Getting the timing right, as we found in February, is harder than it seems.
• Business confidence in New Zealand may have jumped in February to its
highest level since April 1999, but we maintain that the RBNZ will delay tightening
policy until mid-year. The RBNZ will keep the powder dry for now,
mainly owing to the recent string of weak economic data and Governor
Bollard’s desire for hard economic evidence that the recovery in New
Zealand has legs. The NBNZ survey showed that half of respondents expect
the economy to improve over the next 12 months, marking the first rise in
sentiment in three surveys. That said, the deteriorating medium term inflation
outlook reaffirms our view that the RBNZ will lift the OCR from 2.5% currently
to 4.0% by year-end. Our forecast is for the first rate hike to be a 50bp
move in July, followed by a similar-sized move in September, before the
RBNZ shifts back a gear to 25bp moves.
• Last week provided a study in contrast for global data watchers. While a
string of upbeat readings on last quarter’s performance raised our global
GDP estimate to 4.2%q/q saar—the fastest gain since mid-2003—there were
genuinely weak activity readings to start the year. Downbeat readings were
concentrated in the US, where January home sales collapsed and February
initial jobless claims surged. At the same time, the new year has delivered
consistently strong readings in Japan