【出版时间及名称】：JPM-AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY PROSPECTS-100315
      【作者】：jpmorgan
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：21
      【目录或简介】：
• The week ahead in Australia is quiet, with just the 4Q dwelling starts data
due for release on Wednesday. The highlight of the week, therefore, will be
the release Tuesday of the minutes from the RBA’s March Board meeting, at
which officials chose to deliver another rate hike. The tone will be upbeat, as
before. One point of particular interest will be any discussion on consumers,
and how they are coping with the rate hikes already delivered. Uncertainty
over this seemed to be the main reason the RBA paused in February. The
details of last week’s employment report for February were firm, even though
the jobless rate ticked up a notch; the economy held on to the stellar job
gains of recent months and hours worked soared 2.4% over the month. The
report confirmed that further official rate rises are ahead, although we continue
to believe the RBA will wait until early May before hiking again.
• RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said in the statement accompanying last
week’s ‘no change’ decision that higher bank funding costs are doing some
of the heavy lifting on the policy front. This comment, though, failed to alter
our forecast that the RBNZ will deliver the first rate hike in July. Bollard highlighted
recently that the official cash rate (OCR) was not lowered in 25bp
hops so, when the recovery appears sustainable, there could be some “meaty
chunks” on the upside. Those “meaty chunks” will not match the 100bp or
150bp moves we saw on the way down, but 50bp moves are likely given the
amount of policy stimulus that needs to be removed; we forecast 50bp hikes
in July and September. The OCR currently is at a record low of 2.5%.
• Last year’s biggest macroeconomic surprise came from the household sector,
which delivered the decisive spark lifting the global economy out of recession.
The consumer’s rapid swing from deep contraction to above-trend
spending gains directly boosted growth while also prompting large changes
in financial markets and business decisions. Indeed, global manufacturers
have been playing catch-up, adjusting levels of production to better-thanexpected
news on final demand. This development has sustained a doubledigit
pace of global industrial