【关键词】	[url=]热钱[/url]; [url=]房地产价格[/url]; [url=]VAR模型[/url];
【英文关键词】	[url=]hot money[/url]; [url=]real estate price[/url]; [url=]VAR model[/url];
【摘要】	2005年7月汇改以来人民币的升值预期吸引了大量热钱流入到中国,而同期中国房地产价格也在大幅上涨。运用VAR模型对北京、上海、广州和深圳四个城市房地产价格和热钱流入量的月度数据进行了实证检验得出,房地产价格和热钱之间存在长期均衡关系,热钱是房地产价格上涨的格兰杰原因并对房地产价格形成持续的正向冲击。因此,在当年形势下,要限制热钱流入中国,压缩热钱套利空间,建立严格的外资房地产准入机制。
【英文摘要】	Since exchange rate system reform in July 2005,large amount of hot money had been attracted by the RMB appreciation expectations to inflow into China.At the same time,domestic real estate prices also rose sharply.How much did the inflow of hot money impact on China s real estate prices on earth? To address this issue,this paper uses VAR model to carry out an empirical test on the inflow of hot money and monthly data of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen four cities property prices.Analysis shows that ...