【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国大宗商品行业研究报告
        【作者】：CIMB-GK
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：53
        【目录或简介】：
Coal - Defensive play this year. Coal price should stay elevated given the tight
supply situation and transportation bottlenecks for at least two years,
notwithstanding the short-term pressure from seasonality. We expect consolidation
to speed up and more policies put in place to raise entry barriers for new mines.
We remain OVERWEIGHT on the sector, with China Coal staying as our top pick.
Our DCF-(12.8% WACC, 3% LTG) based target price remains at HK$17.1.
• Steel - Be selective. We advise investors to be selective buyers of the steel
sector. Investors should go for players in flat steel rather than long products given
the slowdown in infrastructure and housing starts. Our top pick is Angang Steel
with a target price of HK$19 based on its mid-cycle P/BV of 1.9x. We are
downgrading Maanshan to Neutral in light of its 50% exposure to long steel
products. Our target price is lowered from HK$7 to HK$5.4, still based on its midcycle
P/BV of 1.2x.
• Cement - Coming out from its slumber. We reiterate our positive stance on
China’s cement sector even though cement prices in China have been quiet
over the past few months. Cement demand and prices should start picking up
in Mar-April when the weather turns warmer and construction works resume. In
the longer term, we expect cement prices to rally once the oversupply problem
is resolved. We like Anhui Conch most given its favourable market exposure
and laggard performance since last year. The stock remains an
OUTPERFORM with a target price of HK$65.5, based on the industry average
EV/tonne of US$90.