【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月北美大宗商品行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：58
        【目录或简介】：

Commodity Summary
Carbon steel raw materials
Seaborne Iron ore
Iron ore is a rather simple story. Supply is expanding but at a modest rate (c79-80mtpa)
and recovering world ex China demand is expected to account for this supply. While
China was able to aggressively expand iron ore imports in 2009 given ROW demand
contraction, China imports are likely to grow very little in 2010 and expanding Chinese
steel production will be increasingly dependent on domestic Fe concentrate production.
We reckon that China will need to expand domestic concentrate production by nearly 30%
this year to c300mt (Fe 62% equivalent grade) and this will require substantially higher
iron ore prices for this to be economic. Either that or China will be competing aggressively
for import tonnes against traditional western consumers – and either way it means that
iron ore contract prices in FJY10 will rise substantially. We look for a 50% price increase.
Export Metallurgical coal (coking coal)
A tight market especially in 2010, should lead to a benchmark settlement of around
US$190/t, although quarterly settlements will become more prominent. On the demand
side, recovery of the steel industry around the world is causing buyers to return to the
export markets seeking coal supplies similar to previous levels. However, China has
emerged as a large new buyer in the export market. China imported strongly in 2009 and
looks set to do the same in forecast periods as it seeks to husband its metallurgical coal
supplies rather than exhaust them. In addition new, larger blast furnaces require higher
quality coke thus higher quality coal, which is found in export markets. A further factor
impacting the markets is China’s withdrawal from coke exporting so the limited coke ovens
in the west will demand premium low-volatile coking coal to maximize the yield. The supply
side faces the well known story of infrastructure constraints restricting exports from the
main suppliers in Australia, while rail infrastructure for the emerging coal basins in
Mongolia and Mozambique is not yet in place.
Energy
Export Thermal Coal
A tight market over the next two years should lead to spot settlements around US$90/t.
The story for metallurgical coal and thermal coal is the same: On the demand side,
recovery of industry around the world is leading to recovery of energy demand so
countries are returning the export markets seeking coal supplies similar to previous levels.
However, China has emerged as a large new buyer in the export market. China imported
strongly in 2009 and looks set to do the same in forecast periods for convenience in
supplying coastal power stations. China seeking marginal tonnes equates to a large new
supply requirement for the exporters. The supply side faces the well known story of
infrastructure constraints restricting exports, and the GFC did not speed up the solution to
these issues.
Uranium
We expect weak spot pricing in 2010, but a firming trend in 2011 as utilities will return to
the spot market to cover necessary fuel supplies for 2011 and onwards. Long term, a
nuclear renaissance is underway from Asia with 94 builds due by 2020 in our estimate.
Further tightness may arise from the secondary market where the agreement covering
reprocessing of Russian warheads to fuel is due to end in 2013. However, there are also
potential supply increases that will maintain prices in the $60-70/lb range. Kazakhstan has
a huge capacity for new ISL uranium mines, but we believe it will need a price of US$60/lb
to make the next projects viable. There are also further cold war stocks that may make
their way to the market, uncontrolled by supply agreements.
Base Metals
Copper
A beneficiary of the global increase in electrical applications on the consumption side, and
a challenged mine supply side, we see a finely balanced market through to 2012,
vulnerable to supply or demand shocks. We see no catalyst to move prices from the
current +$3/lb level. China imports control the LME stockpile moves: we expect imports to
continue in 2010, flattening the LME stock build as we estimate that China’s restocking in
2009 only amounted to about 200kt (not including SRB), so further imports will be needed.
Nevertheless, we forecast that in 2010, China’s consumption will fall from the excessive
levels of 2009 due primarily to a recovery of direct use scrap imports.
Aluminium
We now see slight aluminium surpluses throughout the forecast period, so we believe the
market will have to learn to live with the massive LME stockpiles. The well-known story of
aluminium tied up in financing deals will provided some support, as will regional tightness
lifting premia. We have been constructive on aluminium over the past year, but the price
has now reached our target levels and we see no catalysts to drive it higher. It is difficult to
see aluminium exceeding the ~US$1.20/lb levels of 2007 and 2008 with a large stock
overhang. Our prices are now flat in US$1-1.10/lb range over the forecast period. In our
view, we would need a cost push to advance prices higher now. Our regional balances
suggest China will be a net importer over the period from the ROW, which will be a
surplus producer.
Alumina
One of our favoured commodities due primarily to the absence of stocks and demand
being directly tied to aluminium output. As noted above, China will have a deficit of
aluminium throughout the forecast period which will encourage new smelter builds in the
country. China is short alumina feed for the smelters and imports 5-6mtpa. However, there
will be insufficient ROW surpluses for China to import all its increased requirements arising
from smelter capacity expansions. Thus, we expect alumina prices to reach an incentive
price to encourage new alumina refinery builds in China. In 2007-2008, the average price
that achieved new builds was around US$450/t, well above current spot and term rates.
We have conservative forecasts, with linkage rates of 15% over the forecast period, but
see strong upside risk from spot rates seeking incentive prices.
Nickel
Our least favoured metal would seem to have a reprieve from the endless stock build in
2010; provided the Vale strike continues for some months; restocking of about 60kt
occurs; and stainless steel production increases as our steel analysts forecast.
Nevertheless it remains difficult to love a metal with record LME stock balances dependent
on strikes and restocking to reach a balance. If the market is balances as we predict,
prices could be volatile all year, swinging wildly with sentiment. The looming threat to the
nickel market now is the supply side, with a lot of very large nickel laterite projects due to
start up. We see the fate of the nickel price over the next two years closely tied to the
success of the Goro project, first into production. If Goro ramps up in-line, nickel will look
to have a diabolical surplus; if Goro fails, the price will surge on anticipated failure of the
other projects too. We assume the project will work, so we forecast a gradually declining
price trend.
Zinc
There is little change from our previous view. The market will be in surplus for 2010, so the
stock build is likely to continue, but move strongly into deficit in 2011 and onwards, as
larger projects such as Brunswick close and no obvious replacements are available. We
expect firm prices in the forecast period reflecting the move towards deficits.