【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中印石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：60
        【目录或简介】：
Oil & Gas
A Tale of Two Countries
India and China – we prefer upstream over
downstream: Our strategists are overweight Energy in
both China and India, which prompts this thematic study
of the industry in these two nations. We compare
industry and macro parameters, regulations, product
prices and taxation, ands the various industry segments.
We do not want to highlight any downstream winners
because regulatory hurdles hurt these companies the
most. However, we prefer India’s downstream to China’s
in the short term because of expected policy reforms.
Gas to reduce dependency on oil by as much as
90mntpa (1.8mnbpd) in the next 3 years: In India, we
expect overall gas production to increase 135% in the
next 3 years, which should replace as much as 43 mntpa
of crude of requirement and hence improve GDP by
90bps. In China, we also expect gas to increase albeit at
a relatively lower pace of 75%; which should replace as
much as 46 mntpa of crude oil. However, due to the
base effect, the impact on GDP is only 30bps.
Top pick #1 – China Oilfield Services Ltd. (COSL)
over Aban: COSL scores over Aban due to its 1) rising
oil services capacity; 2) relatively stronger balance sheet
and government ownership; 3) increasing capex in off
shore China. COSL’s key overhangs of 2009 – contract
cancelation of the new rigs and expected equity dilution
– have been largely resolved. COSL has confirmed that
Statoil will deploy two of its new semi-submersibles, and
in the recent analyst meeting, management confirmed it
would not be looking at equity dilution in the short term.
Top pick #2 – Reliance Industries (RIL) over
PetroChina: We believe the execution risks in RIL’s two
big projects are behind us – the 580 kbpd refinery and its
KG D6 gas project have both commissioned. We expect
a profit CAGR of 28% for F2009-11. We project that RIL
will be FCF-positive in F2011 and generate FCF of
about US$5-6bn per annum from then on.