【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月德国光伏行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Still cautious on European solar names; prefer REC.
We update our estimates for German solar stocks to
reflect our view that solar tariffs are likely to be set in line
with the government’s most recent proposals. Our
expectations have deteriorated substantially since our
last sector report (European Solar: More Earnings
Downgrades, August 6, 2009), and we expect Q-Cells
and SolarWorld to generate net losses in 2010. Although
the short-term catalyst has largely played out, we are
cautious on fundamental value for the stocks. We
believe Q-Cells, in particular, may struggle to generate
an economic ROE, and the shares may trade below
book value on this basis. We would prefer REC in the
European solar space (see Taking a Constructive View,
February 12) though still see a overhang on financing,
given the company’s likely covenant breach in 2010.
Underweight on Q-Cells on business mix and
balance sheet. We view Q-Cells as most exposed to
price pressure in 2010. The company guides for a return
to “profitable growth” this year, but we expect progress
on cost reductions to be gradual, and forecast ongoing
losses. We believe exposure to the large project market
is a negative, as pricing is more commoditised, regulatory
revisions more negative and working capital higher.
Where could we be wrong? We are relatively positive
on volumes in 2010, despite forthcoming regulatory
changes in Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic.
While volume growth may lead to pockets of
outperformance, we believe other stocks are better
exposed. Our Asian team is Overweight Trina Solar,
JA Solar, Canadian Solar and OCI Company.
What’s next: Q-Cells will confirm its FY09 results on
March 24 with more detail on gross margin, cash flow
and revised asset values. SolarWorld is to report FY09
results on March 25 (production, revenue, EBIT and net
income already reported). The German parliament votes
on solar tariff revisions in April.