【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾消费行业研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：24
        【目录或简介】：
TW consumer companies’ exposure in Shanghai could be a ST catalyst.
􀂃 Rising contribution from China is a long-term driver, in our view.
􀂃 Consumer companies reported 4-32% y-y sales growth in 2M10.
􀂃 Top picks: Ruentex for small caps, Uni-President for big caps.
Solid ST and LT prospects
Upcoming Shanghai World Expo a near-term catalyst
In addition to the recovering consumption power in Taiwan and rising contribution
from China, we note the potential catalyst for consumer stocks in the coming
quarters will be the Shanghai World Expo (from 1 May to 31 October 2010). We
believe retail channels should benefit from more visitors and company
managements guide that more promotions/marketing will be undertaken to
stimulate sales. We believe PCSC and FEDS will be the beneficiaries. Besides,
as 2Q and 3Q are the high season for beverage products, F&B companies like
Uni-President should also be able to participate in the party.
Consumption sales showing solid growth in 2M10
Within the consumer sector in Taiwan, F&B companies, department stores, and
convenient stores (CVS) posted solid sales growth of 4.1-31.7% in 2M10, despite
a higher base in 2M09, supported by consumption vouchers. Only the 3C stores
recorded a sales decline. Auto companies registered a sales increase of 24.4-
72.9% in 2M10. We believe these numbers reaffirm the recovery of domestic
consumption market. FEDS and Pacific Sogo Department stores (Sogo Taiwan;
unlisted) showed a sales increase of 9.3% and16.0% y-y, respectively, in 2M10.
PCSC’s sales grew 9.1% y-y, the strongest momentum since 2007. Uni-
President’s sales climbed 4.1% y-y (the slower momentum was due to a falling
provision business while beverage sales grew about 10% y-y).
We expect February 2010 retail sales to grow
Taiwan retail sales fell 7.7% y-y in January 2010 as: 1) consumption vouchers
were issued on 18 Jan 2009; and 2) the Chinese New Year fell in Jan in 2009 vs
Feb in 2010. However, the consumer confidence index continued its upward trend
and reached 73.16 in February 2010, the highest since November 2005. Thus, in
light of the strong sales posted by listed retail companies, we expect February
2010 retail sales in Taiwan to return to a growth path.
OVERWEIGHT consumer sector for better consumption power
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector for better consumption
power in Taiwan and rising contribution from China. The expectation of RMB
appreciation is also a positive driver to these China plays, in our view. Ruentex is
our favourite in our small-cap coverage for its solid execution in China (59% of the
earnings in 2010E) and the planned listing of RT-Mart China. Uni-President is our
top pick among big caps as we estimate 36% of its earnings will from China in
2010 and we see potential upside from the planned disposal of non-core assets.