【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月印度消费行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：70
        【目录或简介】：

Investment conclusion – investors may do well to
reposition their portfolios: We believe that FMCG
companies are likely to face an increase in intensity of
competition. We think EBITDA margins may have
peaked; valuations in general leave little room for upside.
We are upgrading ITC, Tata Tea and Dabur to OW…
We recommend them as our new top three picks, as
they are least likely to be affected by a potential scenario
of heightened competition.
…and downgrading five other names: HUL and
Colgate are now Underweight; we believe that they are
likely to face the most significant threat from rising
competitive pressures. Our previous top three picks –
Marico, Nestle and GCPL – are now Equal-weight. We
see limited upside to the stocks from the current levels.
Likely increase in competitive pressures: We cite
four factors: 1) an increase in advertising and marketing
expenditures; 2) sharp improvement in gross margins
for most companies, which will likely be reinvested; 3)
HUL’s further aggression on market-share-led growth;
4) P&G’s potential focus on increasing its consumer
base in India. We believe that a potential rise in
competitive spending could manifest itself in price cuts,
increased levels of promotions, and/or a sustained
increase in ad spending.
Where could we go wrong? 1. The consumer staples
market could display acceleration in growth and
accommodate new players, driven by strong rural
growth. 2. Competitive intensity slows down as
companies reconcile to their existing market shares in
their respective segments.
What’s next: We believe that potential price cuts,
increase in promotional offers and/or P&G’s entry into a
new product category or segment are likely to be
negative triggers for the stocks. Potential reversal of
excise tax cuts could also affect the sector adversely.