【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲消费行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：100
        【目录或简介】：
Top picks, least preferred and ones to watch
Despite the strength in stock markets this year, we still see considerable value in
certain consumer stocks. This note highlights the top picks and least preferred
stocks of the sector analysts across our broad coverage of the consumer sectors
(we define these as Retail & Luxury, Consumer Staples, Leisure, Airlines &
Bus/Rail, and Business Services). Our top picks are: Metro, Kingfisher, Reckitt
Benckiser, Imperial Tobacco, easyJet, PartyGaming, Adecco and Serco. Our least
preferred stocks are: Hermes, Pernod Ricard, Securitas and Air France.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Periodical
Top Picks
Metro Group (MEOG.DE),EUR47.20 Buy
Kingfisher PLC (KGF.L),GBP248.50 Buy
Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L),GBP3,655.00 Buy
Imperial Tobacco (IMT.L),GBP1,947.00 Buy
easyJet (EZJ.L),GBP491.70 Buy
PartyGaming PLC (PRTY.L),GBP322.00 Buy
Adecco (ADEN.VX),CHF66.15 Buy
Serco (SRP.L),GBP651.00 Buy
Least Preferred
Pernod-Ricard (PERP.PA),EUR65.89 Sell
Hermes (HRMS.PA),EUR101.40 Sell
Air France-KLM (AIRF.PA),EUR12.26 Sell
Securitas (SECUb.ST),SEK76.40 Hold
Ones to Watch
Inchcape (INCH.L),GBP35.42 Buy
Lindt & Spruengli (LISP.S),CHF2,557.00 Buy
Enterprise Inns (ETI.L),GBP136.60 Buy
Playtech (PTEC.L),GBP535.00 Buy
Panalpina (PWTN.S),CHF94.30 Buy
Recent FITT Research Date
easyJet & Ryanair - A new chapter for the short-haul
specialists
Geoff van Klaveren 16 Apr 2010
A B Foods - All About Primark
Jamie Isenwater 13 Apr 2010
European Consumer Staples - The Importance of A&P
Jamie Isenwater 15 Jan 2010
Online Gaming Sector - B2B or not B2B? That is the
question
Richard Carter 12 Nov 2009
Global Markets Research Company
Top Consumer Sector Picks
Our sector teams have chosen their top picks on their own views of the bottomup
outlook for specific companies and their valuations. Whilst valuation is clearly a
parameter for the choice of all of these stocks, we believe that the following
themes are also significant: 1. Structural growth stories (Reckitt Benckiser, Serco,
easyJet, PartyGaming), 2. Business turnaround underappreciated (Metro,
Kingfisher), 3. Undervaluation of earnings growth potential (Adecco’s consensus
forecasts are too low, in our view; Imperial’s value is underappreciated for its
robust earnings). Interestingly, only the choice of Adecco is driven by a view that
the economic rebound is underappreciated within stocks. A number of the
companies mentioned here also have the potential to benefit from potential future
M&A given the strength of their balance sheets (Reckitt Benckiser, Serco,
PartyGaming). This note highlights the reasons for our selection and where we
believe we differ from the consensus view, as well as prospective catalysts.
Least Preferred consumer stocks
Our least preferred stocks are principally driven by our view that some stocks in
the consumer space have rallied too strongly with the market. In each of these
cases, our view is principally driven by the fact that we see better value elsewhere
within a sector. We believe there are structural pressures to areas of some of
these business models: Air France will continue to be impacted by lower-cost
competitors, and as we highlighted in a Consumer Staples FITT report last year
(The truth about premiumisation, 10th August 2009), we believe the winners in the
post-premiumisation era of the spirits industry will be those that have continued to
drive volume through increasing A&P, unlike Pernod Ricard.
Ones to Watch
We thought that it would also be useful to highlight stocks where we have written
significant fundamental research in the past few months and which we believe are
worth investors taking a closer review. The stocks that we have highlighted (all of
which are Buy rated) here are Inchcape, Lindt, Panalpina, Enterprise Inns and
Playtech.
We have also laid out the stock coverage and earnings multiples of each of our
consumer stocks by analyst (with contact details), as well as a list of recent FITT,
sector and company research.
Valuations and risks
The valuation and risks relating to all of these stocks are detailed in the second
page of each of the company discussion pages.

Table of Contents
Top Picks Summary........................................................................... 5
Equity strategy................................................................................... 6
Top Picks ............................................................................................ 9
Metro Group ........................................................................................................................... 11
Kingfisher ...............................................................................................................................15
Reckitt Benckiser ....................................................................................................................19
Imperial Tobacco.....................................................................................................................23
easyJet...................................................................................................................................27
PartyGaming ........................................................................................................................... 31
Adecco...................................................................................................................................35
Serco......................................................................................................................................39
Least Preferred................................................................................. 43
Hermes ..................................................................................................................................45
Pernod-Ricard .........................................................................................................................49
Air France-KLM .......................................................................................................................53
Securitas ................................................................................................................................57
Ones to Watch ................................................................................. 61
Inchcape.................................................................................................................................63
Lindt .......................................................................................................................................67
Enterprise Inns........................................................................................................................71
Playtech .................................................................................................................................75
Panalpina................................................................................................................................79
UK Stock Loan Data ........................................................................ 82
Valuation Tables .............................................................................. 83
Recent Consumer Research............................................................ 91
Stock Coverage................................................................................ 93