【出版时间及名称】：JPM-P&C AGENT&BROKER SURVEY0JANUARY 2010 RENEWABL MARKET TRENDS FOR MIDDLE-MARKET, SMALL-COMMERCIAL&PERSONAL LINES-100311
      【作者】：jpmorgan
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：91
      【目录或简介】：
on a weighted-average basis, across middle-market, small-commercial, and
personal lines fell 0.4% at January 1, 2010, versus a year ago. This contrasts with
a 1.6% reduction in July and an expected increase of 1.6% 12 months ago.
Meanwhile, respondents are calling for a rate decrease of 1.1% over the next 12
months. This continued, measured price erosion is not surprising given the
industry quickly replenished capital owing to a swift recovery in asset prices and
modest catastrophe losses in 2009. For underwriters, we are starting to see
divergence in pricing trends as commercial lines show continued weakness, while
personal lines are starting to generate rate increases to reflect loss cost trends. For
brokers, our expectation of near-term growth pressures remains unchanged, as any
near-term improvement in relative pricing may not be offset until employment
picks up, perhaps in 2011. The independent agents and brokers in our survey seem
to be somewhat more optimistic than six months ago.
• For underwriters, prices starting to diverge… Rates in personal lines appear
up 1.0%, on average, with both homeowners and auto posting increases.
Looking forward, agents expect personal lines rates to increase 2.4% in 12
months. In commercial lines, rates fell 1.7% versus 12 months ago (and -3.0% in
July), with commercial liability, workers’ compensation, and property/fire under
the most pressure. The magnitude of rate declines remained tied to account size.
Agents expect rates to decrease 0.1% over the next year.
• …as competition for business appears to be falling. Respondents indicated
that the number of companies with which they are doing business is consistent at
eight, on average, versus eight in July. Agents and brokers appear to be using a
similar number of carriers in all lines. Not surprisingly, and confirming company
commentary, less business is being placed in non-admitted or excess and surplus
line markets than six months ago. Not surprisingly, respondents, on average,
plan to increase business volumes with underwriters, although some of this
growth appears to reflect better economic conditions.
• Distributors remain optimistic about outlook despite mixed pricing… 65%
of the respondents indicated that business volumes were stable or increased over
the past 12 months, down from 75% in July. Growth was stronger in personal
lines, and employee benefits, to a lesser extent, while commercial lines were
more challenging, on average. Over the next 12 months, agents’ expectations are
increasingly optimistic, with 80% expecting an increase in activity due to rate
increases versus only 57% six months ago.
• …and organic growth remaining a key challenge. The most universal concern
for producers remains new business, excluding the non-specific other category,
followed by client retention. Given that respondents do not expect commission
ratios, which averaged 12.7% at January 1, 2010, up from 12.3% in July, to
change in the next 12 months, retention will likely remain important to
sustaining revenues, while the economy, or exposures, will determine growth.