来自“国际可再生能源署”的最新太阳能光伏未来趋势报告：72页英文文字PFD版
THE DECARBONISATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR AND THE REDUCTION OF CARBON EMISSIONS TO LIMIT
CLIMATE CHANGE ARE AT THE HEART OF THE INTERNATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY (IRENA)
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION ROADMAPS. These roadmaps examine and provide an ambitious, yet technically
and economically feasible, pathway for the deployment of low-carbon technology towards a sustainable and
clean energy future.
IRENA HAS EXPLORED TWO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS TO THE YEAR 2050 AS PART OF THE 2019
EDITION OF ITS GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION REPORT. The first is an energy pathway set by current
and planned policies (Reference Case). The second is a cleaner climate-resilient pathway based largely on more
ambitious, yet achievable, uptake of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures (REmap Case), which
limits the rise in global temperature to well below 2 degrees and closer to 1.5 degrees, aligned within the envelope
of scenarios presented in the 2018 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
THE PRESENT REPORT OUTLINES THE ROLE OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) POWER IN THE TRANSFORMATION
OF THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON IRENA’S CLIMATE-RESILIENT PATHWAY (REMAP CASE),
specifically the growth in solar PV power deployment that would be needed in the next three decades to achieve
the Paris climate goals.
This report’s findings are summarised as follows:
n ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF RENEWABLES, COMBINED WITH DEEP ELECTRIFICATION AND
INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY, CAN ACHIEVE OVER 90% OF THE ENERGY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE
(CO₂) EMISSION REDUCTIONS NEEDED BY 2050 TO SET THE WORLD ON AN ENERGY PATHWAY TOWARDS
MEETING THE PARIS CLIMATE TARGETS. Among all low-carbon technology options, accelerated deployment
of solar PV alone can lead to significant emission reductions of 4.9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO₂) in
2050, representing 21% of the total emission mitigation potential in the energy sector.
n ACHIEVING THE PARIS CLIMATE GOALS WOULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION ACROSS A
RANGE OF SECTORS AND TECHNOLOGIES. By 2050 solar PV would represent the second-largest power
generation source, just behind wind power and lead the way for the transformation of the global electricity
sector. Solar PV would generate a quarter (25%) of total electricity needs globally, becoming one of
prominent generations source by 2050.