2020 investment management outlook
2020年投资管理展望
Crossing boundaries for profitable growth
跨越边界实现盈利增长
Seeking growth in an increasingly dynamic and complex industry landscape, investment management firms may need to leave comfort zones behind to explore new or different avenues next year.
为了在日益活跃和复杂的行业环境中寻求增长，投资管理公司明年可能需要离开舒适区，探索新的或不同的途径。
2020: Crossing boundaries
2020年：跨越国界
THE changes facing many investment management firms are significant. Internally, long-standing operating models may need transformation to keep up with the competition, and digital-enabled customization is becoming a client expectation. Externally, firms may discover finding investors in new demographic segments or geographies is the most effective path to asset growth. Investors are adjusting their portfolio allocations in search of total return. In the retail market, this adjustment includes an expanding eye toward alternative investments. Consequently, many boards of directors of public firms with investment management capabilities are looking for new leadership they believe are better suited to deliver results in an increasingly dynamic and complex industry landscape. CEO turnover has been rising recently, with at least 37 US and European investment managers changing CEOs from 2017 to August 2019.
许多投资管理公司面临的变化是重大的。从内部来看，长期存在的运营模式可能需要转型以跟上竞争，而数字化定制正成为客户的期望。从外部来看，企业可能会发现，在新的人口细分市场或地区寻找投资者是资产增长最有效的途径。投资者正在调整他们的投资组合配置，以寻求总回报。在零售市场，这种调整包括扩大对另类投资的关注。因此，许多具有投资管理能力的上市公司董事会正在寻找新的领导层，他们认为新的领导层更适合在日益动态和复杂的行业环境中取得成果。CEO更替率最近一直在上升，从2017年到2019年8月，至少有37名欧美投资经理更换CEO。
In 2020, many investment management firms are highly motivated to cross boundaries in search of profitable growth. Crossing boundaries often means leaving the comfort zone and performing new activities or doing standard activities in dramatically new ways. Success can be found crossing boundaries with purpose: by modernizing business operations and by upgrading technology infrastructure to reimagine growth, operational efficiencies, and client experiences. All these changes are intended to delight investors with revitalized capabilities.
到2020年，许多投资管理公司都有很强的动力跨越国界，寻求利润增长。跨越边界通常意味着离开舒适区，执行新的活动或以全新的方式执行标准活动。成功是有目的的跨越边界的：通过使业务运营现代化，通过升级技术基础设施来重新设想增长、运营效率和客户体验。所有这些变化都是为了让投资者对恢复活力的能力感到高兴。
A quick glance at the asset growth in the investment management industry over the past nine years shows steady growth—a sign of health and stability. However, the details seem to tell a more complicated story. The mix of investments has changed dramatically over the past 10 years (figure 1). Passive funds are now the largest portion of the total US fund assets, as asset growth has followed performance. Passive funds have outperformed active funds on average, with the exception of PE, which has outperformed and grown assets steadily over the past nine years (figure 1), even with regular PE fund liquidations. These shifts coincide with an interesting global economic backdrop. While the US economy continues its record expansion, major countries in Europe may already be in recession, and China’s growth slowdown is likely to continue.  A Brexit deal adds to the confusion, with investment managers executing their contingency plans. European regulators and investment hubs in Luxembourg, Dublin, Frankfurt, and Paris also continue to work on a smooth Brexit transition for investment managers.
纵观投资管理行业过去9年的资产增长，可以看出其稳步增长，这是健康稳定的标志。然而，细节似乎讲述了一个更复杂的故事。过去10年，投资组合发生了巨大变化（图1）。由于资产增长紧随其后，被动型基金目前在美国基金总资产中所占比例最大。被动型基金的平均表现优于主动型基金，但私募股权基金（PE）在过去9年中的表现优于主动型基金，并稳步增长资产（图1），即使定期进行私募股权基金清算。这些转变与一个有趣的全球经济背景不谋而合。在美国经济继续创纪录扩张的同时，欧洲主要国家可能已经陷入衰退，中国的增长放缓可能还会继续。BrxIT交易增加了混乱，投资经理执行应急计划。欧洲监管机构和卢森堡、都柏林、法兰克福和巴黎的投资中心也在继续为投资经理顺利进行BrxIT过渡。