China
中国
Bracing for a slowdown
为经济放缓做好准备
Notwithstanding expected growth deceleration, quality of growth could well be improved if policymakers took advantage of trade deal–induced liberalization measures by shifting the growth impetus to consumers.
尽管经济增长预期会减速，但如果政策制定者利用贸易协议引发的自由化措施，将增长动力转移到消费者身上，经济增长的质量可能会大大提高。
THE seemingly miraculous progress of trade talks between China and the United States is in line with our expectations (see our previous piece entitled More economic tensions and heightened uncertainty ahead of trade deal on Deloitte Insights).1 The United States will roll back some of its tariffs while China will execute its committed purchase of US products and further open up its domestic markets (mainly in financial services).2 Of course, there will be some uncertainty in 2020 because none of the thorny issues such as subsidies to state-owned enterprises or technology transfers have been dealt with in the so-called “phase one” trade deal. The reality is that both sides have become more realistic and this realism has paved the way to a trade deal. Nonetheless, China bashing is likely to resurface during the US presidential election 2020 as in the past.
中美贸易谈判看似奇迹般的进展符合我们的预期（见我们上一篇题为《德勤洞察》（Deloitte Insights）的文章，题为《贸易协议前的更多经济紧张和不确定性加剧》。1美国将削减部分关税，而中国将履行承诺购买美国产品和进一步开放国内市场（主要是在金融服务领域）。2当然，2020年会有一些不确定性，因为在所谓的“第一阶段”贸易协议中，没有涉及对国有企业的补贴或技术转让等棘手问题。现实是，双方都变得更加现实，这种现实主义为达成贸易协议铺平了道路。尽管如此，在美国2020年总统大选期间，抨击中国的行为可能会像过去一样再次出现。
On the home front, China’s continued economic resilience in the face of a global slowdown and the protracted trade war with the United States clearly point toward the fact that its policy framework should focus on structural reforms or a faster pace of liberalization (in the financial sector in particular) and refrain from unleashing a large fiscal stimulus. This has been Deloitte’s position for some time now and the Q3 GDP growth of 6 percent has not shaken it. Unlike economies in crisis, China still has much policy leeway in the sense that certain reforms can be undertaken without sacrificing the growth target of around 6 percent. This seems to have been understood by policymakers, as not long ago the government announced its decision to do away with the foreign ownership ceiling of asset management companies.3 In the short run, we believe that the best policy response to the present situation would be continued implementation of measures to ensure better market access for both foreign companies and private enterprises. This will make further escalation of the ongoing US-China trade war difficult.
在主场，面对全球经济放缓和与美国旷日持久的贸易战，中国经济的持续弹性显然表明，中国的政策框架应侧重于结构性改革或加快自由化步伐（尤其是金融业），而不应推出大规模的财政刺激。这已经是德勤一段时间以来的立场，第三季度6%的GDP增长并没有动摇它。与处于危机中的经济体不同，中国在政策上仍有很大的回旋余地，可以在不牺牲6%左右的增长目标的情况下进行某些改革。政策制定者似乎已经理解了这一点，因为不久前，中国政府宣布决定取消资产管理公司的外资所有权上限。3短期内，我们认为，应对当前形势的最佳政策措施将是继续采取措施，确保更好的市场准入外国公司和私营企业。这将使正在进行的美中贸易战难以进一步升级。
However, what the Q3 GDP growth rate figures have done is reignite the eternal debate on whether China’s policies should be more pro-growth or not. If economic deceleration continues, it is conceivable that the growth rate will dip below 6 percent in the coming quarters. But should this really be a cause for concern? The chief purpose of a GDP growth target is maintaining social stability. In China, social stability is all about job creation. At the height of the Asian financial crisis, premier Zhu Rongji had pledged to deliver 8 percent GDP growth. A widely accepted view then was that 1 percent GDP growth could be translated into 2 million jobs. But this kind of relationship between growth and employment no longer holds true, as in recent years the Chinese economy has undergone profound structural changes, with consumption playing an increasingly important role as a growth driver. The services sector now accounts for 46.3 percent of total employment, though it doesn’t necessarily contribute much to a high GDP growth rate.4
然而，第三季度的GDP增长率数据再次引发了关于中国的政策是否应该更加有利于增长的永恒争论。如果经济继续减速，可以想象，未来几个季度的增长率将降至6%以下。但这真的应该引起关注吗？GDP增长目标的主要目的是维护社会稳定。在中国，社会稳定的关键在于创造就业机会。在亚洲金融危机最严重的时候，朱镕基总理曾承诺实现8%的GDP增长。当时一个被广泛接受的观点是，1%的GDP增长可以转化为200万个就业岗位。但这种增长与就业的关系已经不再成立，因为近年来中国经济经历了深刻的结构性变化，消费作为增长动力的作用越来越重要。服务业目前占总就业人数的46.3%，尽管它对高GDP增长率的贡献不一定很大