【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国出版与印刷行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：79
        【目录或简介】：
Publishing & Printing
Newspapers 101: Cyclical Bounce or Sustainable
Growth?
Publishing and Newspapers
Alexia S. QuadraniAC
(1-212) 622-1896
alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.com
Monica DiCenso, CPA
(1-212) 622-0473
monica.dicenso@jpmorgan.com
Townsend Buckles, CFA, CPA
(1-212) 622-0461
townsend.buckles@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
See page 75 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
• A close look at newspaper industry economics. In this report, we
examine the diverse revenue sources and cost items that affect earnings
at newspaper companies and the macro themes that underlie the
industry.
• How will the recovery play out for the newspapers? We review the
newspaper industry’s prospects for 2010, examining how much
revenue may rebound in this improving ad market, and analyze the
migration of ad dollars to other media. We also discuss longer-term
growth prospects and the competitive landscape of both the print and
online segments.
• Valuations have expanded in a cyclical rally, but where do they
end up? Newspaper stock prices have bounced back meaningfully
from a year ago, reflecting hope that the worst is behind the industry
and that estimate cuts were too deep. EBITDA valuations hovered
around 4.0-5.0x during the lows and now have bounced back to an
average of 5.8x today, still well below the historical average, but that is
to be expected given the bigger drop-off in circulation and generally
more dismal outlook on the industry today versus just a few years ago.
We believe further upside may be limited from here given ongoing
challenges associated with ad dollars moving to other media and some
constraints to growth in digital areas.
• Company snapshots and recommendations. We provide an overview
of the newspaper companies under coverage, with investment positives
and risks, our outlook for each company, and relevant data on assets
under ownership. Our ratings are Neutral for GCI, NYT, SSP and MNI,
reflective of our belief that modest upside may still exist as the cyclical
bounce continues but that meaningful outperformance is unlikely at this
time given secular challenges.