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2010-04-07
【出版时间及名称】:2010年3月印度金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】:摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】:pdf
        【页数】:34
        【目录或简介】:
Remain In-line on the sector; Top Pick Sterlite, Upgrade Hindalco to EW
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
 Top Picks in Nonferrous Metals & Mining: Sterlite Industries Ltd, Sesa Goa
 We still expect a healthy but range-bound trend in base metals prices in C2010. We have slightly adjusted our price assumptions for aluminium by -1%/ +3%/+2% for F10E/ F11E/ F12E in line with our global team’s forecasts.
 We remain Overweight Sterlite and raise our price target to Rs1,179 from Rs1,091. We raise our 2010-2012e earnings by 2-6%
•It offers strong, multi-faceted volume growth and solid cost reduction potential.
• We expect it to post strong EBITDA growth supported by volume gains and cost reductions.

It comes closer to step-up volume growth in zinc, power and aluminium

Negative news flow on the stock should subside over the next quarter.
 We upgrade Hindalco from UW to Equal-weight and raise our PT to Rs186 from Rs137. We revise our 2010-2012e EPS by -6% to 17%

Clarity on Hindalco’s greenfield projects is now improving.

Novelis benefits from a macro recovery

We remain UW on National Aluminium (Nalco), primarily on valuation
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