【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚太汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
What is changing? We analyze: (1) the continued expansion of local
branded vehicle producers’ market share in China’s auto sector and the
impact of the upcoming financial subsidy program on new energy
vehicles in China; (2) further operating losses of Japan’s Toyota in its
American market due to its recall problems; (3) the impact of the rising
monthly running costs for autos due to excise duty hikes and fuel price
hikes in India; and (4) the future of the hybrid vehicle developed by
Indonesian Institute of Science and its impact on Indonesia’s auto sector.
• Information: We discuss: (1) FY09 results of Great Wall Motor, Minth,
and Sinotruk in China; (2) the impact of the extended eco-car subsidy on
Japan’s auto sales; (3) the launch of the new SUV model, Sorento, by
Kia, helping it introduce the much-improved engine performance and
fuel efficiency in South Korea; (4) the increasing competition for market
share in the Indian small car segment—due to the entry of several global
players—and in the Indian truck segment, due to the entry of Daimler.
(5) Taiwanese auto producers investing in aggressive marketing
campaigns to promote sales and regain customer confidence after
Toyota’s recall problem in the US; (6) Astra International providing
guidance for a 10-15% growth in two- and four-wheeler markets in
2010, but limited margin upside in Indonesia.
• Non-consensus calls: (1) We turn positive on China’s passenger
vehicle (PV) sector from our neutral stance earlier, given: (a) our
upward estimate revisions for China’s auto sales; (b) China PV sector’s
re-rating potential, with significant medium-term secular growth
potential due to the sector’s low penetration rate and rising disposable
income in China; and (c) the sector is witnessing a sharp rise in
profitability. (2) We downgraded our rating on Maruti Suzuki India
Limited to Neutral. After robust growth in the past year, we expect its
earnings growth to moderate over FY10-12 as volume growth moderates
and EBITDA margins taper off. We believe this is reflected in the
company’s valuation multiples, which have come off from peak levels.