We expect public and private sector leverage to be an important constraint on central banks’ ability to deliver price stability going forward. The temptation to inflate away debt – debtflation temptation – depends on several factors; some of the most important ones are: the public (and private) debt overhang; the average maturity of outstanding government debt; the proportion of debt held abroad; the proportion of foreign currency-denominated debt; and the proportion of inflation-proof debt. On the basis of these metrics, we find the temptation to inflate to be higher in the US and the UK than in the euro-zone – if monetary policy is conducted for the ‘average’ euro-zone member – and lowest in Japan. p 2
Central Bank Watch
US: Reiterating the Case for Higher Real Rates
p 8
Euro Area: The Sovereign Crisis and the Euro
p 9
Japan: A Turning Point in Prices?
p 9
Russia: Stronger RUB, GDP and Lower Rates
p 10
Poland: On Hold, Neutral Bias Stays
p 10
Czech Republic: On Hold, Dovish Undertones
p 11
Hungary: Rates Can Go Lower
p 11
Romania: NBR Brings Rates to Record-Low
p 12
Turkey: CBT Not in a Hurry to Tighten
p 12
Israel: A Hike a Month Earlier than Expected
p 13
South Africa: SARB Cuts 50bp
p 13
Asia-Pacific: Strong Growth Trend to Continue
p 14
China: Inflation Tracker
p 14
Taiwan: Sticking to Loose Monetary Conditions
p 15