气候变化对生育率的影响The Impact of Climate Change on FertilityAbstract"We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behaviour. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economicdemographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damages decrease the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one specific mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic."
摘要：
由于农业减少了对熟练工人的利用，气候损害降低了获得技能的回报，导致父母为每个孩子的教育投入较少的资源并提高了生育能力。在高纬度地区，这些模式发生了逆转，这表明气候变化可能会通过减少北部富裕国家的生育率和增加其受教育程度，同时在较贫困热带国家增加生育率和减少受教育程度来加剧不平等现象。虽然该模型仅考察了一种特定机制的作用，但它表明气候变化可能会对生育率产生影响，表明有必要在这一重要主题上开展进一步的工作。” 在高纬度地区，这些模式发生了逆转，这表明气候变化可能会通过减少北部富裕国家的生育率和增加其受教育程度，同时在较贫困热带国家增加生育率和减少受教育程度来加剧不平等现象。虽然该模型仅考察了一种特定机制的作用，但它表明气候变化可能会对生育率产生影响，表明有必要在这一重要主题上开展进一步的工作。” 在高纬度地区，这些模式发生了逆转，这表明气候变化可能会通过减少北部富裕国家的生育率和增加其受教育程度，同时在较贫困热带国家增加生育率和减少受教育程度来加剧不平等现象。虽然该模型仅考察了一种特定机制的作用，但它表明气候变化可能会对生育率产生影响，表明有必要在这一重要主题上开展进一步的工作。”

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