【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月第三次产业革命研究报告
        【作者】：荷兰国际集团
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：51
        【目录或简介】：
Our research shows that if FMCG companies are able: (1) to
redefine business models to include responsibility in
marketing and sourcing; and (2) to reposition themselves as
MCCs, they will be able to reap ‘hard’ business benefits.
Western Europe
23 March 2010
The third industrial
revolution
Multi-committed company (MCC): the
archetype to capture consumer loyalty
Food, Beverages & HPC: a thematic insight
Phasing of the eight
crises/opportunity events
•Climate change
• Ethical and value chg
• Water scarcity
• Political disintegration
• Climate change
2005 2010 2015 2020
• Demographic and consumer explosion
• Financial and economic ‘reset’
• Food scarcity
• Energy tension
‘reset’.
• Energy tension
Source: ING estimates
Confirmation of 2010-15 investment paradigm. In the short term,
the winners in FMCG will be those companies that are able to mitigate the
impact of food and energy price volatility and to accommodate the impact of
demographic growth and Consumer Reset.
But a revolution in marketing/sales is coming. Brands have a
responsibility to act. Against the background of demographic growth in
developing areas and economic/social crises in the West, we are at a
crossroads where consumption growth will have to be decoupled from
impacting society. A growing minority of consumers are choosing a
sustainable positive lifestyle and are no longer willing to compromise on
responsible behaviour from companies. Hence the need for companies to
focus on clean labelling, local sourcing and a new DNA for brands.
Revolution in sourcing towards responsibility and access.
Companies will have to adjust their total value chain to resource scarcity
(food, energy, water) and responsible sourcing, as this will be critical for their
cost level, margins and brand equity.
Emerging market strength is redefining the balance of power
and creating MCCs. Economic and political crises, as well as food, energy
and water trends, should lead to a redistribution of power towards EM. Multicommitted
companies (MCCs) are in the sweet spot of these trends and could
create the third industrial revolution: real responsible and sustainable growth.
‘Hard’ business benefits need new equity research. Although there
is a perception that these trends are soft, in our view we are reaching a point
where new factors need to be incorporated into research. Buy low-valued MCCs

Contents
Summary 3
Investment case 7
Introduction: changes to business success factors 10
Consumption explosion 11
Changes to the growth mentality 14
Economic and social Reset 17
Food scarcity: the tension 19
Climate change: delayed 23
Water scarcity: gap vs price 27
Return of the energy crisis 31
EM strength redefines balance of power 33
Timing and regional positioning 35
The impact on food, beverage and HPC in 2010-15 39
The impact on food, beverage and HPC after 2015 41
The emergence of multi-committed companies 43
Disclosures Appendix 50