【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚太证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：83
        【目录或简介】：

Japan and the US are leading equity markets in 2010. Asia Pacific ex
Japan and EM are up just 2% YTD. The outperformance is consistent
with a growth surprise from developed not emerging economies. To play
this theme within Asia our preferred sectors are technology and
industrials.
• Policy risk in Asia remains high, notably in China. The recovery in
exports combined with strong consumption growth means that less fixed
asset investment is required to sustain growth. Chinese equities are
likely to underperform until a change in policy is announced. In China,
monetary policy is implemented via quantitative restrictions. This policy
announcement could include reducing loan growth target.
• National service is another policy risk. This is shorthand for government
influencing corporate policy in order to pursue an economic objective.
Arguably the risk of national service is higher in companies where the
government ownership is high. In this report, we review the ownership
structures of Asian equity markets. Our thesis is that high government
ownership results in lower valuations. Chinese, Indian and Thai
government companies do trade at a sizeable discount to their respective
markets. SoEs are 73% of MSCI China free float market cap. In contrast,
PSUs are just 11% of MSCI India’s free float market cap.
• On page 11 Steve Malin introduces J.P. Morgan’s latest quant tool to
monitor stocks versus their long term trend.
• On page 13 Sriyian Pietersz highlights why ASEAN is outperforming
and his upgrade of Thailand in the ASEAN region.
• Key asset allocation calls:
OW: India, Taiwan and the Philippines
OW: Technology, transportation and banks
UW: China, Australia and Hong Kong
UW: Telecoms and Utilities
• For our APxJ Key Trade stock ideas, click here to download the
Bloomberg sheet.
• For the country model portfolio changes, please see the bottom of the
respective country pages.

Table of Contents
Excitement East of East...........................................................3
Quant Strategy – Introducing the Q Profile..........................11
ASEAN Strategy – Thailand upgraded to OW ......................13
Regional model portfolio by country....................................20
Regional model portfolio by sector ......................................21
Risks........................................................................................25
Australia: Cyclical meets the structural ...............................28
China: From investment to consumption.............................30
South Korea: Going through a noisy phase ........................32
Taiwan: Earnings surprises begin ........................................34
Hong Kong: Impact from China tightening ..........................36
India: Policy normalization to continue… ...........................38
Singapore: Built it, and they have come ..............................40
Malaysia: Positive macro trends...........................................42
Thailand: Further to Run........................................................44
Indonesia: Right direction in the price .................................46
Philippines: Stay the course .................................................48
Our extended markers ...........................................................50
Hindsight trades – Asia’s key sectors ..................................52
Asia Pacific ex-Japan Big 100 ...............................................54
Asia Pacific Strategy Dashboards ........................................60
J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Asia Pacific Macro Team83