【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月新加坡地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：DMG Research
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：52
        【目录或简介】：
3 2Q10 OUTLOOK
8 SINGAPORE DEVELOPERS
10 SINGAPORE REITS
SINGAPORE COMPANIES
12 Ascendas REIT
14 ARA Asset Management
16 Ascott Residence Trust
18 CapitaLand
22 CDL Hospitality Trusts
24 City Developments
28 Fraser & Neave
32 Hong Leong Asia
34 K-REIT Asia
36 Keppel Land
40 ParkwayLife REIT
42 Wing Tai Holdings and DNP Holdings

More room for tourism-related stocks to run
We recently raised our Singapore 2010 GDP growth forecast to 5.6%.
Singapore’s Feb 10 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 23% YoY, better
than expectations. We expect NODX growth momentum to remain robust in
1H10, driven by better growth momentum in regional markets, and a low 1H09
base. We forecast NODX to rise 9.8% in 2010, after 2009’s contraction of
10.6%. Given the more optimistic outlook, we have raised the Singapore 2010
GDP growth forecast to 5.6% (from 5.1% previously), which is within the
government guidance range of between 4.5% and 6.5%.
Our STI target remains at 3038. This is pegged to 1.6x P/B, the average over
the past 12 years. We note that the STI hit a peak of more than 2x P/B on the
recovery path immediately after the late-1990s Asian Financial Crisis, when the
US economy grew rapidly (average of 4.5% pa US GDP growth from 1997 to
2000). We do not expect the STI P/B to hit anywhere near 2x level as US
economic growth, though positive, is not as healthy as the late 1990s period.
However, should market expect the low interest rate environment to be
prolonged (even into late 2011), and liquidity remains high, the STI may end the
year higher than our expectations.
Sharply higher visitor arrivals to drive earnings of tourism-related stocks.
We do not recommend buying stocks across the board, given our view of a mild
4% upside to the STI. Our key theme remains that of tourism. In Jan and Feb
10, visitor arrivals rose 17.6% and 24.2% YoY respectively. With Resorts World
having already opened both the casino and Universal Studios Singapore, and
Marina Bay Sands to start operating in Apr 10, we expect much stronger visitor
arrival numbers going ahead. Singapore Tourism Board is forecasting 11.5 –
12.5m visitor arrivals in 2010, up ~24%. This will be positive for hotel operators
such as CDLHT (S$1.76\BUY\TP: S$2.30), and airport services provider SATS
(S$2.64\BUY\TP: S$3.07). High-end property developers could also see
increased demand from foreigners who come to Singapore to play in the
casinos – we like Wing Tai (S$1.90\BUY\TP: S$2.15) and SC Global
(S$1.90\BUY\TP: S$2.26).
Other key sector recommendations:
• Banking sector is rated NEUTRAL, but we prefer UOB (S$19.44\BUY\TP:
S$22.30) given its stronger balance sheet strength.
• Land transport stocks such as ComfortDelgro (S$1.57\BUY\TP: S$1.78),
which has higher yield and lower beta, which could give investors stronger
total returns when the STI is rangebound.
• Oil and gas stocks – Overweight as we expect more news flow on new
projects as crude oil price stays above US$70/bbl. We like Ezra
(S$2.44\BUY\TP: S$2.96) and Keppel Corp (S$9.02\BUY\TP: S$9.90).
• Supply chain managers will benefit from likely strengthening of commodity
prices. We like Olam (S$2.61\BUY\TP: S$3.24) for its acquisition strategy.
• Telecommunication – Despite competition from NGNBN, we see potential
for capital management. Our top pick is M1 (S$2.11\BUY\TP: S$2.30): (a) a
more level playing field under NGNBN, and (b) active capital management.