【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月新加坡地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: We are turning more positive
on Singapore residential-focused property developers
and recommend that investors overweight City
Developments, Allgreen, Wing Tai and Wheelock.
These stocks typically trade with residential price
performance, and with our belief that residential prices
will continue to rise 10-15% by year-end, they should
continue to perform well. We are less positive on
CapitaLand (EW), and see few near-term positive
catalysts, as there will be fewer opportunities to
monetize assets after the divestments in the last three
years (Exhibit 4).
Price growth is well supported, with the improving
macroeconomic outlook and employment prospects, as
well as rising rents and sustained affordability. Most
importantly, we believe that the pool of domestic private
buyers in Singapore has almost doubled since 2004 to
232k households, from 117 in 2004 (Exhibit 18).
Risks to the upside if speculation, broad-based
foreign demand and en bloc return: Speculative
activity seems low compared with previous cycles, with
sub-sales at only 13% of total sales vs. 18% in previous
up-cycles. Foreign demand has so far been dominated
by Indonesian, Malaysian, mainland Chinese and Indian
buyers, and a return of more broad-based foreign
demand could see prices spike higher. Most importantly,
the en bloc market could return by 2011, as developers’
landbanks start to run down. At present, developers
seem unwilling to pay up for en bloc sites, but if sales
volumes stay high and landbanks start to run low, we
believe the developers will have no choice but to pay up
for landbank.
Policy risk a non-event: With elections due by
February 2012, we think the likelihood of draconian
property-cooling measures is low. Improving economic
growth of 7-9% by government estimates will temper the
government’s need to cool property prices, in our view.