【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球投资银行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
After a robust 2009, more volume
contraction than expansion in 2010e,
but a broad pick-up thereafter
 A start-stop Q1, and a more cyclical
post-crisis ‘exit trajectory’ this time
 We remain overweight the CIB sector;
highlight calls Credit Suisse, Barclays
2010 a mixed year, but a broad
volume improvement in 2011-12
The year has gotten off to a mixed start for the corporate and
investment banking (CIB) sector, with encouraging business
volumes in January trailing off in February and early March.
In the wake of a robust 2009, we forecast year-on-year
contraction in industry volumes in full-year 2010 in equity
and debt origination, a mixed performance by region in
syndicated lending, measured growth in M&A, and further,
if more modest, expansion in some of the higher-risk
markets, such as high yield. By region, Asia looks set to lead
the pack this year, and Europe to bring up the rear.
Industry prospects look brighter in 2011-12. We forecast
expanding business volumes in almost all core activities and
all regions those years. Some of this expansion will simply
represent ‘catch-up’ from the long recession. Despite such a
recovery, with the exception of the debt markets business
volumes in 2012 in most activities will still be, on our
forecasts, below or well below 2007 levels.
Overall, the post-crisis ‘exit trajectory’ this time around
looks more cyclical than in the past, reflecting undoubtedly
the greater severity of the recent credit crisis.
The sector begins reporting its Q1 2010 results in mid-April.
Sector valuation and highlight calls
The global CIB sector is trading at 11.6 and 8.8 times diluted
2010e and 2011e cap-weighted earnings, and at 1.7 times
2010e tangible equity, while offering a still cautious 2.2%
dividend yield. Our highlight calls, both Overweight (V), are
Credit Suisse (target CHF67) and Barclays (450p). We also
have Overweight (V) ratings on BNP Paribas (EUR66),
Morgan Stanley (USD38), Societe Generale (EUR57), and
State Street (USD51).

A strong start in 2010 gives
way to choppiness
We highlight in this note our three-year industry
volume forecasts for a selection of core, nontrading
investment banking activities and how
year-to-date and grossed-up Q1 2010 volumes are
shaping up, especially relative to our 2010e
industry forecasts.
The US corporate and investment banking (CIB)
sector begins reporting its Q1 results in three
weeks. After a strong start to the year, investment
banking revenues appear to have trailed off in
February and early March and then started
strengthening again in mid-March. In year-onyear
terms, core revenues are likely to be down in
Q1 2010, even though reported revenues should
benefit from the further decline of risk-asset
contra-revenue marks. This observation also
applies to full-year 2010e. We would nonetheless
continue to focus more on annual than quarterly
expectations, and for certain companies on
normalised annual earnings potential.
Wide variation in growth expectations
Speaking in broad categories, we expect more
equity and debt origination activities (most of
which enjoyed a strong 2009), as well as
syndicated lending, to experience volume
contraction in 2010 than expansion. Conversely,
high-yield could post another year of expansion,
though well off its record growth rates of 2009,
while M&A volumes and US leveraged
syndications could return to growth this year for
the first time since 2007. Looking beyond 2010,
we see few areas of industry volume contraction
in 2011e or 2012e, high yield being one exception
in the former year.
Europe still the regional laggard
Our regional growth forecasts should come as
little surprise, with Asia generally leading the
pack in 2010e and Europe lagging. Even in Asia,
however, the outlook is far from uniformly
positive; in some categories we simply see less
volume contraction this year than elsewhere.
European business volumes suffered greater
contractions in more categories as a result of the
credit crisis and economic recession than US or
Asian volumes did. As a result, the stronger
European volume recovery we forecast for many
of these activities in 2011-2012 would still leave
Europe well behind the US relative to, say, their
respective 2006 or 2007 business levels.
Market share realignment
Not all banks will be equally affected by industry
volume changes. Sector consolidation (Bear
Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch) and
market share shifts during the credit crisis should
cushion the effect of any industry volume
shrinkage on the top tiers.