Solar Installations to Grow by Additional 142 GW in 2020 – Seven Times the World’s Total Solar Installations a Decade Ago
2020年的新增装机容量将达到142千兆瓦，是10年前全球太阳能装机总量的7倍
14% YoY increase from 2019 continues strong growth trends in both total capacity and geographic coverage
与2019年相比，同比增长14%，总容量和地理覆盖范围继续保持强劲增长趋势
January 07, 2020
2020年1月7日
Global solar installations will continue double-digit growth rates into the new decade, according to the new 2020 Global Photovoltaic (PV) Demand Forecast by IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions. New annual installations in 2020 will reach 142 gigawatts (GW), a 14 % rise over the previous year.
根据关键信息、分析和解决方案领域的全球领先企业IHS Markit（NYSE:INFO）对2020年全球光伏需求的预测，全球太阳能装机将在新的十年中继续保持两位数的增长率。2020年的新增装机容量将达到142千兆瓦，比上年增长14%。
Diversification of the global solar PV market. Source: IHS Markit
全球太阳能光伏市场的多样化。来源：IHS Markit
The expected 142 gigawatts are seven times that of the entire capacity that had been installed by the start of the prior decade (20 GW in 2010). The growth has been substantial in terms of geographic reach as well. There were 7 countries with more than 1 GW of installed capacity in 2010, most of them confined to Europe. IHS Markit expects more than 43 countries to meet that threshold by the end of 2020.
预计的142千兆瓦是前十年开始时（2010年为20gw）装机容量的7倍。在地理范围方面，增长也相当可观。2010年，有7个国家的装机容量超过1千兆瓦，其中大多数仅限于欧洲。IHS Markit预计，到2020年底，将有超过43个国家达到这一门槛。
“Another year of double-digit global demand growth in 2020 is proof of the continued and exponential growth of solar PV installations in the last decade,” said Edurne Zoco, director, Clean Technology & Renewables, IHS Markit. “If the 2010s were the decade of technology innovation, steep cost reductions, large subsidies and dominance by a few markets then 2020 marks the decade of emerging unsubsidized solar, diversification and expansion of solar installation demand across the globe, new corporate entry players and increasing competitiveness versus conventional energy sources.”
IHS Markit清洁技术与可再生能源主管Edurne Zoco说：“2020年全球需求再增长两位数，证明了过去十年太阳能光伏装机的持续和指数增长。”。“如果说20世纪10年代是技术创新、大幅降低成本、大量补贴和少数市场主导的十年，那么2020年则是新兴的未补贴太阳能、全球太阳能装置需求多样化和扩张、新的企业进入者以及与传统能源相比竞争力增强的十年来源。”
Large markets such as China will continue to have an outsized share of new installations into the foreseeable future. However, the overreliance on China for global solar installation growth will continue to decrease in coming years as more capacity is added elsewhere. Installations outside of China, the world’s leading market, grew by as much as 53% in 2019 and are expected to continue growing by double digits in 2020. Overall, the top 10 solar markets are expected to see their collective share of the market fall to 73 %, down from 94% in 2010.
在可预见的未来，中国等大型市场将继续拥有巨大的新增装机份额。然而，随着其它地区产能的增加，未来几年对中国的过度依赖将继续减少。2019年，全球领先市场中国以外的安装增长率高达53%，预计2020年将继续保持两位数的增长。总体而言，前十大太阳能市场的市场份额预计将从2010年的94%下降到73%。
“China will remain in the preeminent position as the overall leader in solar installations. But this decade will see new markets emerging in South East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East,” said Zoco “Still, the major markets will continue to be critical for the development of the solar industry, especially as test beds of technological innovation, policy development and new business models.”
“中国将继续保持太阳能装置总体领先地位。但这十年将在东南亚、拉丁美洲和中东出现新的市场，”佐科说，“尽管如此，主要市场将继续对太阳能产业的发展至关重要，特别是作为技术创新、政策制定和新商业模式的试验田。”
Regional highlights from the IHS Markit 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast:
IHS Markit 2020全球光伏需求预测的区域亮点：
China – Solar demand in 2020 will be lower than historic installation peaks of 50 GW in 2017. Demand in China is in a transitional phase as the market moves towards solar being unsubsidized and competing with other forms of generation and there is some lingering uncertainty while awaiting the release of the new 14th Five-Year Plan to be announced next year.
中国——2020年的太阳能需求将低于2017年50千兆瓦的历史安装高峰。中国的需求正处于一个过渡阶段，市场正朝着太阳能无补贴和与其他发电形式竞争的方向发展，在等待明年宣布的新的“十四五”规划发布之际，还存在一些挥之不去的不确定性。
United States – Installations are expected to grow 20% in 2020, consolidating the United States’ position as the world’s second largest market. California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and New York will be key drivers of U.S. demand growth over the next five years.
美国——预计2020年安装量将增长20%，巩固美国作为世界第二大市场的地位。加利福尼亚、德克萨斯、佛罗里达、北卡罗来纳和纽约将是未来五年美国需求增长的主要驱动力。
Europe – After nearly doubling installations in 2019, Europe is expected yet to continue growing inn 2020, adding more than 24 GW—a 5% increase over 2019. Spain, Germany, Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine will be leading sources of demand, accounting for 63% of total EU installations in the coming year.
欧洲——在2019年的装机量几乎翻了一番之后，预计2020年欧洲客栈的装机量仍将继续增长，增幅将超过24千兆瓦，比2019年增长5%。西班牙、德国、荷兰、法国、意大利和乌克兰将是主要的需求来源，明年将占欧盟总装机量的63%。
India – Following a flat year in 2019, due to policy uncertainties and the impact of import duties on solar cells and modules, installations are expected to grow again and surpass 14 GW in 2020. Lower module prices and a large pipeline of projects are expected to spur the return to growth.
印度——由于政策不确定性和进口关税对太阳能电池和组件的影响，2019年的装机容量持平，预计2020年装机容量将再次增长，并超过14千兆瓦。预计较低的模块价格和大量项目将刺激经济恢复增长。