【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国通信设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：
As disclosed in Huawei's recently published 2009 annual report, Huawei’s
calendar 2009 results and projected 2010 outlook, together with recent
significant gains by ZTE, remind us that over and above on-going muted carrier
capex trends, comm infrastructure suppliers continue to face the challenge of
ongoing sizable market share gains by non-Western suppliers led by Huawei
and, to a lesser but growing extent, ZTE.
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Share Gains Continue: Over and above its significant impact on pricing and
margins over the past decade, Huawei continues to carve into the available
market opportunity for Western suppliers. Huawei’s CY09 revenues
increased 19% Y/Y to $21.8bln. For CY10, Huawei has set a goal of 20%
Y/Y revenue growth, which would amount to over $26bln. Huawei’s CY09
19% revenue growth contributes to a six-year CAGR of over 40%. By
comparison, we estimate that aggregate revenues for the comm
infrastructure industry declined by (17)% in CY09 contributing to a 5% sixyear
CAGR. While ZTE has not yet announced its calendar 2009 operating
results, it too appears to have made meaningful in-roads into the market
share of Western suppliers with over 30% Y/Y revenue growth in each of its
last seven quarters. Huawei and ZTE together will have generated over
$31bln in CY09, which accounts for over 10% of total industry revenue and
over 12% of carrier-focused comm equipment suppliers’ revenues.
■
R&D Advantage: Speaking to its ability to continue to drive rev growth and
market share gains, Huawei has increased its R&D expenditures by over
20% per year in each of the past six years, with its R&D expenditures in
CY09 increasing by over 27%. As a result of Huawei’s rev growth rate,
Huawei has managed to achieve this growth in R&D while decreasing R&D
as a percentage of total rev. R&D accounted for less than 10%—8.9% to be
precise—of revenues. Huawei’s ability to significantly increase R&D
expenditures in terms of absolute dollars and growth rate while lowering
R&D as a percentage of revenue and thereby increasing operating margins
and cash flows is unrivaled by any Western supplier of communications
equipment of which we are aware. In turn, perhaps needless to say, we
believe this represents a significant competitive advantage for Huawei and
helps to account for Huawei’s impressive market share gains over the past
decade.
■
Vendor Implications: Huawei’s and ZTE’s historical rev mix suggests that
their threat is most acute for service provider-focused suppliers of wireless
and transport infrastructure and relatively less severe for CSCO, JNPR and
other Layer 3–7 IP infrastructure suppliers. We continue to believe, however,
that long-term Huawei and other Asian suppliers represent the most
significant threat to CSCO and JNPR although we do not expect to see a
meaningful impact for another 3–5 years.