【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月非洲和独联体国家黄金行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：114
        【目录或简介】：

Global shift in gold steers investments to new frontiers
We believe that the declining trend in key gold producing regions has spurred a new wave of investment,
leading to growing mine supply in other parts of the world. In 1999, the top five producers (South Africa,
the US, Australia, China, and Canada) represented 55% of world production. By 2009, however, their
production had declined by 355 tonnes and represented only 47% of global production. In that year,
Russia and Peru surpassed Canadian output to become the 5th- and 6th-largest producers, respectively,
jointly producing 393 tonnes. Especially as challenges mount in South Africa, we believe investors will
flock to opportunities in other parts of Africa and CIS (mainly Russia and Kazakhstan) for compelling
investment opportunities with exposure to both gold and emerging markets.
As a result of our thematic view of gold investment shifting to newer regions, we are initiating coverage
of Polymetal (TP USD14) and Randgold Resource (TP USD90) with Overweight (V) ratings. We are also
initiating coverage of Polyus (N(V), TP USD30), Centerra Gold (N(V), TP CAD14), IAMGOLD (N(V),
TP USD16), Gold Fields (N(V), TP USD15), Harmony Gold Mining (N(V), TP USD11), and AngloGold
Ashanti (N(V), TP USD43).
Gold prices naturally play a key role in our forecasts
Our valuations are based on HSBC’s commodity analyst James Steel’s gold price forecasts. We
expect gold to average USD1,150/oz in 2010 and USD975/oz in 2011, supported by accommodative
monetary and fiscal policies. The more recent pullback in gold prices coincides with a USD comeback –
notably against the EUR – fueled largely by heightened sovereign risk, a drop in investor risk appetite,
Summary
and an unwinding of the USD carry trade. Nonetheless, we believe gold equities will benefit from the
solid price environment; however, we believe price volatility driven by the heightened speculative
environment could translate to near-term share price volatility. Furthermore, we believe that HSBC’s
currency team’s forecast range for the EUR/USD – a low of 1.30 in Q1, moving up to 1.45 by the end of
the year – complements our view of gold prices strengthening in 2H.
Some of the factors which propelled gold higher in 2009 are likely to reassert themselves later in the year,
principally a resumption in USD weakness, which we believe will be key in supporting gold going
forward. Inflation pressures, however, will be insufficient by themselves to support gold, and downward
surprises in this regard could act as a weight on bullion. Persistently low interest rates and
accommodative monetary policies may act as a counterweight to low price pressure. Higher commodity
prices, based on ongoing robust emerging market growth, will likely support gold prices.
Declining gold price forecast trends not enough to hold Polymetal and Randgold back, in our view.
Our forecast for lower gold prices in 2011 is predicated heavily on an ongoing moderate inflation
atmosphere and the gradual exodus of some of the safe-haven investment that dominated the market in
much of 2008 and 2009, as the world economy continues to stabilize. Also, although we anticipate a
continued recovery in jewelry demand next year, physical gold consumption from the jewelry sector will
likely remain below pre-crisis levels.
We believe that both Polymetal and Randgold’s aggressive growth plans and attractive costs will be able
to compensate for our declining gold price trend forecast. According to our estimates, Polymetal and
Randgold have production growing aggressively into 2012, at rates of 21% and 18%, respectively, from
2009. Our 12-month target prices for gold companies are based on blended 2010-2011 operating cash
flows and NAV multiples. If we based our target prices on blended operating cash flows on 2011-2012
estimates, when gold our price forecasts decline even further, the upside to our target price for Polymetal
stays the same, while our upside improves for Randgold.
Valuation methodology: Based on cash flow and NAV
Our 12-month target prices for the gold companies under our coverage are based on blended 2010-2011e
operating cash flows and NAV multiples. Our framework reflects near-term earnings drivers along with
each asset’s longer-term potential value, through a mine-by-mine DCF analysis.
We believe operating cash flow reflects the key performance indicators for gold miners: production and
costs. Based on our analysis of historical P/CF multiples for gold stocks, gold companies trading in the
top quartile, which are characteristically in a growing production phase, average multiples of 23x P/CF.
Companies trading in the bottom quartile, which characteristically have mature production profiles and in
many cases significant operational risk challenges, average 10x P/CF multiples. Given that cash flows for
gold companies are driven primarily by production and costs, we consider three-year gold production
CAGR and cash costs per ounce to help determine which target multiples to use for our implied value
forecasts.
Our blended valuation also uses P/NAV multiples to capture factors not reflected in the P/CF valuation.
While P/CF multiples value near-term performance indicators, we believe that longer-term factors with
upside potential are more difficult to quantify and are not usually reflected in the P/CF multiple. We
believe that P/NAV multiples are an effective way to reflect longer-term value-creation opportunities not
always captured in near-term cash flow estimates. To generate NAV estimates for the companies under
our coverage, we performed a mine-by-mine DCF analysis, allowing us to value the future production
and cash flows from operations. However, the DCF does not incorporate other factors that add potential
upside and, therefore, we believe there are a number of factors that can warrant shares trading at a
premium to their NAV value. These factors often reflect information that is subjective and very difficult
to forecast. We believe the most important subjective factors are: asset quality, management
effectiveness, and production growth potential. In order to gauge these subjective factors, we consider
past resource-to-reserve conversion trends, non-reserve resource levels, advanced exploration, and
exploration success to help us determine our target NAV multiples.
Our valuations and estimates are based on HSBC’s average gold price forecasts of USD1,150/oz in 2010,
USD975/oz in 2011, and USD850/oz over the long term. We are using HSBC’s long-term price forecast
of USD850/oz in our models.
Initiating coverage on key African and CIS gold producers
We are initiating coverage of Polymetal, Randgold, Polyus, Centerra, IAMGOLD, Gold Fields, Harmony,
and AngloGold Ashanti. While every gold-producing region has its share of political, infrastructure,
security, cost, and operational risks, we believe companies with the right management, production growth
opportunities – through new projects, expansions, or improving asset performance – world class assets,
and relative cost stability will emerge from the group. Our favorite plays are Polymetal and Randgold.
Our 12-month target prices for gold companies are based on blended 2010-2011 operating cash flows and
NAV multiples. Our framework reflects near-term earnings drivers along with each asset’s longer-term
potential value, through a mine-by-mine DCF analysis. As gold remains comfortably above the