【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球资本市场研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Are Capital Markets Set to Spring Into Fuller
Action?
The global capital markets represented a fairly mixed bag during the first quarter. On
one hand, equity prices were up, market volumes were mostly improved, retail
brokerage trends were fairly resilient and asset management experienced flows into
richer products. On the other hand, investment banking activity remains weak, fixed
income prices were more mixed and prime brokerage and securities lending
business conditions remain challenging. Our forward estimates rely on a pickup in
activity levels through the balance of 2010—we are hopeful that broader
improvement in conditions and the benefit of several catalysts (further ending of
quantitative easing measures) could help. Other key issues we continue to monitor
are the evolving regulatory landscape, potential consolidation of the competitive
landscape and sustainability of last year’s expense management initiatives.
■
Investment Banking Activity Mostly Weaker, Debt Underwriting Resilient. In
the calendar first quarter, based on information from Dealogic, investment grade
debt underwriting was up 25% from fourth quarter levels but high yield debt
underwriting was down 14%. The volume of equity underwriting was down
48%—related disclosed fees were down 30% from the fourth quarter. Completed
M&A was down 36% in the first quarter and announced M&A was down 11%.
■
Asset Prices Mixed, Volatility Lower. In the first quarter, equities were mostly
improved while fixed income prices were more mixed. Specifically, equities
prices were mostly up on both a period-end and average basis, interest rates
were mixed, high grade credit prices were relatively stable, high yield credit
prices were higher, and commodities prices were mostly up. Residential real
estate indices were mixed while commercial real estate indices were mostly
down. Volatility across most asset classes was lower in the first quarter.
■
Trading Volumes Mainly Improved Off Weak 4Q Levels. First quarter-to-date,
global exchange volumes are mainly improved across both the derivatives and
cash equity markets, albeit off of a weak fourth quarter. European cash equities,
U.S. options and cash fixed income trends are stronger. U.S. cash equities
volumes are noticeably weaker from prior year levels. With respect to derivatives
volumes, commodities/energy and FX volumes continued to be a bright spot
while interest rate volumes continue to exhibit signs of improvement.
■
Retail Brokerage and Fund Flows. Retail brokerage trends have proven fairly
resilient. Client asset inflows remain stable-to-modestly negative for the
traditional brokerage houses but positive for the discount/online channels. We
expect the latter to continue to attract new assets at a healthy pace in 2010.
Trading activity did begin to retrench in the fourth quarter driven in part by
seasonality and normalization in equity market volatility. With respect to recent
results, retail trading activity was down 15-18% mth/mth in February. We
anticipate an 4-6% increase during March from weak February activity levels.
■
The Stocks. Within our capital markets coverage universe (i.e., brokerage and
advisory firms, discount retail brokers, trust/custodial, financial exchanges and
market structure firms), our favorite names include Goldman Sachs, Morgan
Stanley, Blackstone, CME Group, Charles Schwab, and State Street.