【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚太零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：47
        【目录或简介】：

under our coverage reported 26% earnings growth on average during
2009, which was 5% better than expected, mainly due to higher-thanexpected
margins as sales growth was in-line. Two major positive
surprises came from Trinity and Ajisen, where margin improvements
were better than expected. Big-cap sportswear companies also surprised
slightly on the upside, but due to non-recurring reasons such as tax
rebates and temporarily low A&P spending in 2H09.
• Earnings drivers: 26% average earnings growth was driven by 18%
revenue growth, helped by store expansion. SSS growth rate was 5% on
average, which might look weak, but actually rose from 4% in 1H09 to
7% in 2H09 and was mainly pulled down by sportswear companies.
• Changes to our estimates: Given that results were 5% ahead of our
estimates, we increased our 2010 and 2011 earnings estimates by 8% and
11%, respectively, on average. The increase mainly came on the margin
front. We lifted our 2010 and 2011 sales estimates by only 1% and 3%,
respectively, driven by positive company guidance on YTD SSS growth
rates. We are now looking for 23% earnings growth on average for 2010.
While for department stores and brand retailers the average y/y earnings
growth is around 26%, for sportswear brands it is 15%.
• Changes in our views: Since the results we have generally upgraded our
ratings. We upgraded Parkson and Ajisen to Neutral from UW, China
Dongxiang to OW from Neutral, and Giordano to OW from UW.
However, we downgraded Golden Eagle to Neutral.
• Top picks: 1) Sportswear: We have turned marginally positive on
sportswear names. We now have an OW rating on China Dongxiang and
Xtep, and a Neutral rating on Li Ning and Anta. 2) Department Stores:
We continue to be positive on department stores and maintain our OW
rating on NWDS and Lifestyle. 3) Clothing and footwear retailers: Our
top picks in this subspace are Belle and Ports Design. While we expect a
strong turnaround at Trinity, we have a Neutral rating on the stock,
mainly based on valuations.