【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月泰国零售行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：


Thailand Retail
Buy CP All for Quality, Big C
for Value
1Q10 Preview: Positive momentum continues for
CP All, recovery underway for Big C and MINT
CP All – Another strong quarter expected with revenue
growth of 16.6% yoy (6-7% SSG) and PAT growth of
26% yoy. We project CVS margins to improve another
20 bps yoy driven by improvement in product mix.
Big C – Expect sales growth of ~3% yoy driven by
positive SSG in 1Q at +1.5% yoy. Margins expected to
be maintained and we project PAT growth of 6.8% yoy
driven by negligible interest expense as the company
paid off its debt in 4Q09 and is now debt free.
MINT – Expected to report better numbers on the back
of macro recovery and easier comps. We project overall
yoy revenue, EBITDA and PAT growth of 27%, 24% and
29% respectively. Hotel OR is likely to improve 400 bps
to 62% while ARR is expected to be flat (first time in four
quarters). Food SSG to recover to +2% yoy.
Stock Recommendations
CP All: High quality pick even in political
uncertainty – We raise EPS estimates by 5-8% and
increase our bull case weighting to 15% (from 5%) to
arrive at a new price target of Bt31.10. We continue to
see strong long-term growth potential for CP All as it
continues to surprise with its excellent execution of store
roll-outs, steady SSG and product innovation.
Big C still offers good value – We like Big C for its
attractive valuation as it trades at a valuation discount of
~30% compared to global hypermarkets, offers an
attractive dividend yield of 5% and is expected to
witness recovery in consumer spending and resumption
of store openings in CY10. We raise our EPS estimates
by 3-5% and our new PT of Bt57.70 offers 25% upside.
MINT: signs of recovery but… Though performance in
1Q is expected to reflect recovery in fundamentals, the
ongoing political chaos could severely dampen the
trajectory, if prolonged. The stock is likely to be volatile
until the situation is resolved, in our view. Retain EW.