【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月巴西发电商研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
In this report we publish an investment guide to Brazilian pure generation
companies (gencos) CESP6, TBLE3, GETI4 and MPXE3, with a detailed
analysis of the seven major stock price drivers for the industry (pages 4-16) and
valuation, rating analysis and risks for each stock (pages 17-23).
• We are upgrading Tractebel Energia (TBLE3) to OW from Neutral. After
strong underperformance in the past year, we believe that TBLE3 more than prices
in the risk coming from its relationship with parent GDF. In our view, TBLE3 now
also factors-in the worst-case scenario for the future transference of Jirau (i.e., ROE
below TBLE3’s cost of equity). Valuation is attractive when compared to peer
CESP6, global gencos and historical levels and, although we are still not optimistic
on the outlook for long-term energy prices in Brazil, we believe that TBLE3 can
benefit from: 1) recovery in demand from free customers during 2010; 2)
management’s proven ability to sign attractive PPAs; 3) accretive ROE from
3,300MW Jirau, given GDF’s proven ability to anticipate the startup of greenfield
projects; and 4) improvement in the outlook for new energy auctions in 2010.
• OW-rated AES Tiete (GETI4) still offers higher potential upside. AES Tiete
continues to offer strong and predictable cash flows, coming from a PPA for 100%
of its capacity until 2015, and low political, regulatory and concession risks. GETI4
trades at a valuation discount to peers and global gencos, offering at the same time a
high and sustainable dividend yield of 11%. The major catalyst for the stock in 2010
could be potential acceleration of IGPM inflation, since the company’s revenues are
fully protected. Despite market concerns about interest rate increases, we reiterate
that historically GETI4 has not underperformed the sector during BZ rate cycles.
• We remain Neutral on MPX (MPXE3). MPXE3’s value is entirely based on
projects that will not generate revenues before 2011. Thus, we believe the current
stock price factors in: 1) MPX’s three projects with PPAs; 2) holding cost; 3) cash
position; and 4) around 65% of the estimated NPV of the Colombia coal complex. In
our view, upside would come only from significant news of development of new
projects (i.e., signing of PPAs). Accordingly, since we remain less optimistic about
energy prices for 2010 and the calendar of energy auctions does not seem to favor
thermo projects, we do not expect significant upside in the short term.
• We remain Neutral on CESP (CESP6). We believe the stock already prices in the
concession renewal of its plants at R$55-60/MWh, which we see as fair given that
the government has been consistently in favor of socializing the benefits of a
potential renewal. Moreover, we are skeptical that the solution for this problem will
come in the next 12 months, and we believe that the privatization process has been
abandoned by the SP government for the time being.