【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：

Sales and new construction growth supported by demand from small cities
Residential GFA sales and new construction starts for 2M10 increased 38% and
40% y-o-y due to more activities in less developed Tier-II and small cities. The
growth rate decelerated from the December level last year. ASP uptrend
continued in the first two months. We expect sales volume to decline 10% this
year due to less investment demand. Owner-occupied demand from Tier-II cities
remained robust. Near-term policy uncertainty will cap short-term upside. We
recommend investors to take profits into a future rally.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Market Update
Table of contents
Selling prices .................................................... Page 02
Transaction volumes ........................................ Page 04
New supplies.................................................... Page 12
Local residential markets.................................. Page 16
Land supply and demand ................................. Page 25
Policy orientation .............................................. Page 26
Monthly performance....................................... Page 30
Top picks
China Resources Land (1109.HK),HKD17.94 Sell
Agile Property (3383.HK),HKD11.02 Sell
Mingfa Group (0846.HK),HKD2.40 Buy
Franshion Properties (0817.HK),HKD2.61 Buy
Glorious Property (0845.HK),HKD3.41 Buy
China & HK NAV Discount Spread
-80%
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China HongKong
Index Performance 31/03/2010
Index 1M% 3M% 12M%
HSI 3.1 -2.9 56.4
HSCEI 7.4 -3.1 53.6
HSP 6.9 0.5 63.2
Coverage 1 07/04/2010
Company Last Price TP Upside
China Overseas 18.10 17.90 -1.1
China Vanke - B 9.20 10.80 17.39
China Resource Land 17.94 12.00 -33.11
Country Garden 2.91 3.00 3.09
Guangzhou R&F 13.80 13.70 -0.72
Agile Property 11.02 8.40 -23.77
Glorious Property 3.41 5.05 48.09
Franshion Properties 2.61 2.95 14.94
Shui On Land 4.15 3.30 -20.48
Coverage 2 07/04/2010
Company Last Price TP Upside
Greentown China 11.38 9.50 -16.52
Mingfa 2.40 3.25 35.42
Fantasia 1.83 2.50 36.61
Shanghai Forte 2.48 3.00 20.97
Zhong An 2.64 3.20 21.21
Upcoming events Date
Deutsche Bank Access Asia Conference
10-13 May 2010
Global Markets Research Company
2M10 GFA sales rose 37.9% y-o-y; ASP rose 25.0% y-o-y to Rmb5,508/sm
Total residential GFA sales in China for 2M10 reached 64.3msqm. Volumes for 14
major cities accounted for 26% of total sales in China, which saw an average y-o-y
volume decline of 17.1%, underperforming small cities. Only Beijing, Tianjing, and
Chongqing saw positive growth in GFA sales, while Shenzhen and Wuhan saw a
greater than 60% y-o-y decline. Chongqing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing and
Tianjing were the largest local markets in terms of volume. Recent weekly sales
data for 35 major cities also suggest that sales volumes are recovering from the
Chinese New Year low.
New construction starts recorded historical high of 118msqm
Total new construction starts of commodity residential in China in 2M10 reached
118.34msqm, up 39.9% y-o-y, continuing the uptrend since 4Q09. We believe the
new starts increase resulted partially from the government’s push to increase
market supply since December 2009. New starts numbers in 14 cities were mixed,
eight out of 14 cities recorded y-o-y growth, led by Guangzhou of up 150%, while
six recorded a decrease, led by Nanjing of down 35%. More supplies are in the
pipeline in Tier-II and Tier-III cities, which are in line with our view.
Government determined to curb home price and reduce speculation
On the demand side, the Big Four banks recently stopped providing an interest
discount of 30%, and the MOF and State Taxation restricted qualified first-time
home buyers as first house per family to curb further investment demand. On the
supply side, the government continues to supply more land for social welfare
housing and has ordered 78 SOEs to withdraw from the property market to reduce
land completion for developers. It is determined to cool down the property market.
We expect more policies to be unveiled in the coming months. With the potential
interest hike, we expect overall prices to stabilize and volume to fall modestly.
Policy uncertainty will cap short-term upside; prefer non-residential plays
We see near-term sector valuation improvement, due to sales recovery and no
new policy noise. We believe future austerity measures by the government will
cap short-term upside for the sector. Our top Sells are CR Land and Agile property.
We believe non-residential plays are generally less sensitive to policy measures;
hence, we prefer Mingfa and Franshion. We also like Vanke B and Glorious
Properties due to their relative valuation. The China Property sector has
underperformed the benchmark for 2H09; we expect this trend to continue in
2Q10. We advise investors still underweight the sector. Key risks are policy
changes that may hurt demand growth in China.