【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲债券市场研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：205
        【目录或简介】：
In this month’s Overview, ‘The waiting game’, we reckon that the Asian credit market faces another
correction in 2Q. This is despite investor confidence quickly being restored by policymakers across the
globe, and in particular the United States’ reassurance that exceptional fiscal and monetary initiatives will
not be reversed until private-sector activity returns to a steady and self-sustaining path. Aside from
Greece’s unresolved public finance issue, which could come to a head in 2Q10, we highlight three new
factors that could quite easily cause investors to temporarily reverse their risk-taking strategies. First, we
discuss local government debt in China, which is being funded by the banking system. Second, we look at
the United States’ tense relationship with the Chinese authorities over their renminbi policy. Third, we
believe investors are underestimating the impact on bank debt pricing of the financial reform bill making
its way through the US Congress and June’s G-20 meeting in Canada.
This month, we retain our relative value recommendations as published in the March edition of
‘The Magnificent Seven’. We make one change to the upside target for Trade #14, DAHSIN ’20 vs
HENLND ’19, and increase it by 10bp; we now expect DAHSIN ’20 to trade flat to HENLND ’19 versus
10bp outside previously. This follows the upgrade on 25 March of our fundamental recommendation for
Dah Sing Bank from Underweight to Neutral post the FY09 results. Overall, our portfolio of trades has
performed steadily, with the majority of pair trades showing positive performance in terms of yield
differential. The trades which moved against us in March did so largely due to positive technical support
for the ROP sovereign curve. As we retain an Underweight fundamental recommendation and Sell calls
on the ROP bonds, we view the result of this move as a better entry point for Trades #2, #3, and #12.
Reviewing performance in March, we noticed that Asian credit spreads have compressed to their tightest levels
since the start of 2008 in spite of ongoing exogenous headwinds and a strong supply pipeline. The aggregate
Asian credit spread ended 1Q10 10% tighter, at T+251bp, while gross primary issuance was 28% of the 2009
figure. The Asian credit rating cycle also improved, with a current outlook similar to that of end-2008.
Sri Lanka takes the limelight in the Sovereign section with a discussion of the country’s economic
progress following a research trip a few weeks ago. We maintain our constructive view of the economic
story for the medium term. This is despite near-term issues surrounding the speed of fiscal consolidation
and the domestic political landscape.
Is China’s property market on the verge of collapse, as suggested by various renowned hedge fund shortsellers?
We think not, as we point out in ‘Still room to grow’. We visited 12 residential property projects from
five developers in three cities: Guangzhou (a first-tier city), Suzhou (second-tier) and Shenyang (second-tier).
We believe the property markets are healthier in second-tier cities versus first-tier cities. There is more supply
of residential property coming onstream in second-tier cities, restraining upward pressure on prices and keeping
housing more affordable. Demand for properties in second-tier cities should increase with the completion of the
national high-speed railway network in the coming years, which will increase their connectivity with first-tier
cities. We continue to like ROADKG’11, SHIMAO’11 and COGARD’13-11p as hold-to-maturity low-beta
plays. We prefer Country Garden’s COGARD’14 over Evergrande’s EVERRE’15 with fewer concerns on
corporate governance and financial management.

Overview 3
Credit Strategy 13
Focus List 30
Credit Review 39
Sovereign Risk Analysis 47
Monthly focus: Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka 48
People’s Republic of China 54
Hong Kong SAR 62
Republic of India 66
Republic of Indonesia 69
Republic of Korea 77
Federation of Malaysia 80
Socialist Republic of Vietnam 83
Company Report 87
China property 88
Company News & Analysis 103
Financial Institutions 104
Corporates 113
Asian Economics Desk
Reference 146
Asia Credit Coverage 150
Spread and Curve Charts 151
Appendix 159
HSBC Databank 160
Asian Yankee/Eurobond Secondary Trading Levels
as of 7/4/2010 178
Asian Rating Timeline 183
Disclosure appendix 191
Disclaimer 201