􀂃 Enterprise mobility provides long-term growth opportunity.
􀂃 Smartphone/tablet economics have positive economics.
􀂃 The affect of the KCC marketing cap needs to be felt by 2Q10.
􀂃 OVERWEIGHT Korean telcos – SK Telecom and KT top picks.
Re-rating or else
Enterprise mobility provides long-term growth opportunity
Korean telcos are making a new move into managed mobility solutions. SK
Telecom (SKT) is calling this shift IPE (Industrial Productivity Enhancement), KT
is calling it S.M.ART (Save cost, Maximize profit ART), and LG Telecom (LGT) is
calling it Beyond Telecoms. In our view, Korea is an under-penetrated market with
regard to enterprise mobility, and we believe it has significant growth potential. If a
quarter of the 24m person labour force can be deployed with mobility, annual
revenue from enterprise mobility users could reach KRW4.4t.
Smartphone/tablet economics have positive economics
We estimate that the number of subscribers using smartphones reached 1m in
Korea as of February this year. iPhone continues to push strong sales of
smartphones, having sold more than 500,000 units in early April. At this juncture,
our 1m target in 2010 (which seemed aggressive at the start) now appears rather
conservative. Smartphone proliferation in Korea has positive economic
implications for Korean telcos. iPads and news tablet devices from SEC and LGE
could become a meaningful catalyst.
KCC marketing cap impact needed as of 2Q10
Higher subsidies from smartphones should negatively affect 1Q10. Telcos’
attempt to secure market share ahead of the KCC’s (Korean Communications
Commissions) marketing-cap measure has led to a moderate increase in
competition in 1Q as well. Our channel check reveals that KCC will somehow find
a way to lower telcos’ marketing expenses this year, and it is likely to announce a
detailed measure soon.
OVERWEIGHT Korean telcos – SKT and KT top picks
We are OVERWEIGHT on Korean telcos with KT and SKT as our top picks. We
are newly issuing a pro-forma guidance version for 2008 and 2009 financials for
KT. We are also issuing new merged financials for LGT and we have lowered our
target price to KRW9,100 from KRW10,500 because of the higher net debt from
put-back options and higher LTE-investment assumptions based on our DCF
analysis.