【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国医疗设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：
MedTech remains attractive to us
Our channel checks point to MedTech business trends which are stable-toimproving.
However, with the group no longer trading at the discounted multiples
seen a few months ago (i.e. 10%-15% in 4Q09), we now expect more in line
performance rather than outperformance. As a result, we would focus on greater
stock selection this quarter, and given some of the ongoing macroeconomic
uncertainties, we continue to favor the more diversified companies. Our favorite
names remain COV, JNJ, and SYK, with MDT representing our top pick.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Companies featured
Align Technology (ALGN.OQ),USD17.70 Hold
Alphatec Holdings Inc (ATEC.OQ),USD5.84 Hold
C. R. Bard (BCR.N),USD85.08 Buy
BioMimetic Therapeutics, In (BMTI.OQ),USD13.50
Boston Scientific (BSX.N),USD6.94 Hold
CareFusion Corporation (CFN.N),USD26.44 Hold
Covidien Ltd. (COV.N),USD50.78 Buy
Gen-Probe (GPRO.OQ),USD48.00 Buy
Integra LifeSciences (IART.OQ),USD43.63 Hold
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.OQ),USD354.21 Buy
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N),USD65.11 Buy
Kinetic Concepts (KCI.N),USD48.12 Buy
Masimo Corp. (MASI.OQ),USD25.40 Buy
Medtronic (MDT.N),USD45.43 Buy
St. Jude Medical (STJ.N),USD42.46 Buy
Stereotaxis (STXS.OQ),USD4.85 Buy
Stryker (SYK.N),USD57.64 Buy
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH.N),USD59.34 Hold
Price Target Changes
Company Prior New
Alphatec Holdings $4.50 $6.00
Intuitive Surgical $365 $380
Global Markets Research Company
Cardio: BSX ICD recall benefits MDT/STJ, but markets are underwhelming
With BSX out of the US ICD market for the last couple weeks of 1Q, we believe
this provided $50mm in additional sales to its two main competitors in CY1Q
(importantly, because MDT’s quarter ends at the end of April, MDT’s quarter
should benefit from $100mm in potential sales that are up for grabs). However,
our checks point to US ICD market growth below expectations (i.e., flat to slightly
down vs flat to slightly up). We do not see any near-term catalysts to drive
volumes, but could see a mix benefit later in 2010 with greater use of CRT-Ds. Our
working assumption is that BSX returns to the US market in mid-April (30 days
total) and experiences ~300bps of share loss on a go forward basis. On the stent
side, positive volumes continue to be offset by negative pricing. Our preferred
cardiology name remains MDT given its new product cycle, diverse revenue base,
and attractive valuation (10% discount to large cap MedTech).
Ortho: 1Q volumes continue to show ongoing stability/improvement
Our surgeon checks point to stable 1Q volumes relative to 4Q. While weather may
have hindered some procedures, we do not expect a material impact in the
quarter. We believe pricing continues to be difficult, but offset by favorable mix.
Hence, we believe procedure volumes of 4-6% will pace market growth.
Internationally, we continue to see negative headwinds in Europe. Our preferred
orthopedic name is SYK given stabilizing ortho and hospital capex trends.
Mid/Small Cap Thoughts
ISRG shares continue to outperform as demand for da Vinci systems improve,
penetration of existing and new indications goes on unabated, and commercial
sales in Japan could be around the corner. We view the latter, as well as an
ongoing replacement cycle and the near-term launch of new products, as large
multi-year drivers. We now forecast KCI’s year as more back-end loaded and
could post results a tad below expectations in 1Q given higher expenses related to
the SNN trial and new product launches in the U.S. and Japan. Nevertheless, we
continue to view KCI’s shares as attractive given its discounted valuation (lowest
2010 P/E in the group: 11x vs 15x for hospital supplies names), new product
launches, and diminished risk related to litigation. We also believe that trends for
ALGN, MASI and GPRO are positive heading into earnings results.
We make changes to some covered company PTs and ests; valuation & risks
Our PTs are generally based on a peer group analysis and employ EV/sales or P/E
multiples. Risks include regulatory setbacks, market share shifts, reimbursement,
and pricing. Additional details by company are described herein.
Table of Contents
Medtech performance and FX Monitor ........................................... 4
Large Cap ........................................................................................... 5
Boston Scientific (BSX), $6.94...................................................................................................5
CareFusion (CFN), $26.44 .........................................................................................................8
Covidien (COV), $50.78...........................................................................................................10
C.R. Bard (BCR), $85.08..........................................................................................................12
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), $354.2..............................................................................................14
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), $65.11 ..........................................................................................17
Medtronic (MDT), $45.43........................................................................................................19
St Jude Medical (STJ), $42.46 ................................................................................................22
Stryker (SYK), $57.64...............................................................................................................25
Zimmer (ZMH), $59.34............................................................................................................27
Small/Mid cap.................................................................................. 29
Align Technology (ALGN), $17.70 ...........................................................................................29
Alphatec Holdings (ATEC), $5.84 ............................................................................................31
BioMimetic Therapeutics (BMTI), $13.50................................................................................32
Gen-Probe, Inc. (GPRO), $48.00 .............................................................................................33
Integra LifeSciences (IART), $43.63 ........................................................................................35
Kinetic Concepts (KCI), $48.12................................................................................................36
Masimo (MASI), $25.40 ..........................................................................................................38
Stereotaxis (STXS), $4.85........................................................................................................40
Models.............................................................................................. 41