【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北欧石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：DNB NOR
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：114
        【目录或简介】：
Lifting our 2010 oil price forecast to $80/b. On the back of tightening
fundamentals in the second half of this year we think the oil price will
trade close to current levels. We project oil demand growth of 1.8 million
barrels for 2010, with China representing upside risk. Weak refinery
margins and high spare capacity both upstream and downstream are key
downside risks to our forecast.
• Integrated oil benefits from higher oil prices and refining margins
coming back in March towards more normal levels. Refining margins
have improved from rock-bottom levels due to run cuts/maintenance with
gasoline margins benefitting the most. The light/heavy and Brent/Urals
spreads have widened, as OPEC produces more oil, also benefiting hard
struck refiners. European long term gas prices have bottomed out, and US
spot prices are on an increasing trend from current lows, with gas glut
weakness reflected in share prices. Oil price leverage is again key and BP,
Statoil and Shell offer the best risk-reward, in our view.
• We argue that Questerre and Det norske offer best risk-reward in
the E&P space currently. The Henry Hub price is set to strengthen over
the next 6 months in our view, supporting the Questerre share.
Furthermore we argue that the potential represented in the upcoming
horizontal wells in Quebec is vastly undervalued. The implied value of
exploration potential in Det norske is close to zero currently, which is not
expected to last for long. We believe the upcoming drilling program will
reverse the negative sentiment and significantly increase the markets'
willingness to pay for the exploration assets.
Oil Market
Revising upwards the oil price forecast for 2010
Despite the volcano on Iceland and the fraud case against
Goldman Sachs we are revising our average oil price forecast for
2010 upwards by 5 $/b to 80 $/b. We are however not viewing
this as a bullish move as both the OPEC basket and Brent prices
currently trade above 80 $/b.
• We don't think Saudi Arabia would like to see 100 $/b in 2010,
due to the still fragile economic recovery, and that 75-85 $/b
would be the preferred level. The Kingdome has however not
responded to prices rising above 85 $/b and we thus increase
our expected upside range for 2010 to 95 $/b. We have also
witnessed consumers come running to hedge when prices fell
towards 70 $/b in February, marking that level as strong
support. We thus now assume a 70-95 $/b trading range
in 2010 and rise our average price assumption from 75
$/b to 80 $/b.
• We are maintaining the rest of our price deck and the oil
price forecast for 2011-2015 thus remains unchanged.
• It's important to interpret the price drivers in 2009 and in 2008
because it has implications for how to read the market in 2010.
• Financial money flow was the key driver in 2009, while the price
explosion in 2008 was fundamentally based, caused by a global
diesel squeeze.
• The price drivers from 2008 cannot be repeated in 2010, due to
a combination of large expansions in refinery flexibility, large
upstream spare capacity and still large stock overhangs. This
gives Saudi Arabia control over the upside, unlike in 2008.
• Non-OECD's share of global oil demand has increased from 38%
to 48 % the latest 8 years, propelled by population growth,
urbanization and a growing middle class. These trends are set to
continue.
• Our main reason to be bullish to oil prices in the 5-year
perspective is however still to be found on the supply side. We
think non-OPEC production growth will continue to struggle and
thus necessitate a need for demand rationing in order to balance
supply and demand within 2015. The current large OPEC spare
capacity will then be erased.

Table of contents
OIL MARKET 3
INTEGRATED OIL COMPANIES 19
E&P UPDATE 30
PETROCHINA (BUY) 34
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL (BUY) 41
TOTAL SA (HOLD) 46
SINOPECC (HOLD) 51
ENI (HOLD) 57
CNOOC LTD (BUY) 62
STATOIL (BUY) 68
NESTE OIL OYJ (HOLD) 73
ALLIANCE OIL COMPANY (SELL) 78
LUNDIN PETROLEUM (HOLD) 81
DNO INTERNATIONAL (BUY) 85
QUESTERRE (BUY) 89
NORECO (BUY) 94
PA RESOURCES (SELL) 99
DET NORSKE OLJESELSKAP (BUY) 104
ROCKSOURCE (BUY) 109