【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲公路行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Brisa and Abertis face a tough 2010:
modest toll rises, weak economies and
potential deterioration in risk premium
 Atlantia to benefit from healthy tariff
growth and positive traffic increase in
2010; regulatory risk overdone
 We downgrade Brisa to Neutral from
OW, maintain our UW rating on Abertis
and continue to like Atlantia (OW)
In 2010, the contrast between resilient players and poor
performers will continue to drive our ratings: We expect
traffic volumes to remain moderate in Spain and Portugal,
but foresee further resilience in France and Italy. Pricing will
underline a further difference between Abertis and Brisa,
which generated only moderate toll fees owing to the
previous year’s inflation, and Atlantia, which will benefit
from a positive toll increase in 2010 (2.4% y-o-y).
2010 to be weak for Abertis and Brisa: Margins could
come under threat from a combination of poor volumes and
weak pricing, and further cost-cutting programmes might not
be sufficient to offset these. Given that 68% of consensus is
positive on Abertis and 61% on Brisa (source: Bloomberg),
we believe the market is overestimating the companies’
capacity for a rebound in the short term.
Our stock pick is Atlantia, on which we remain Overweight
(target price unchanged at EUR25.0), on a combination of
favourable regulation (toll fees are up), resilient traffic (flat l-f-l
in 2009) and strong potential return on our valuation (41%). We
have cut Brisa’s target price to EUR7.0 from EUR8.5 and
downgraded it to Neutral from Overweight on surprisingly poor
Q4 traffic and uncertainty about catalysts. We have increased
Abertis’ target price to EUR15.0 from EUR12.0, but remain
Underweight on valuation grounds, although downside looks
more limited now.
The main catalyst will be traffic behaviour in the coming
months. New projects or acquisitions are also possible, in
particular for Abertis and, to a lesser extent, Atlantia. On the
risks side, we expect the cost of debt to remain under control,
given exposure to fixed rates, and the recent refinancing
operations (for Atlantia). We expect margins to fall slightly at
Brisa, remain flat for Abertis and increase slightly for Atlantia.