preferred spaces within the Business Services Sector, with a resilient 2009
illustrating the importance of structural drivers. While growth slowed
sharply, it remained in positive territory for all three (+3.5% organic at
Intertek, +1.9% at BV and +1.3% at SGS). During 2010-11, we expect
growth to re-accelerate as cyclical headwinds abate and turn positive,
supplementing rather than dampening growth. We also expect acquisitions
to return to playing an important role in growth.
• There is also potential for valuation multiples to expand, with multiples
through FY04-08 some 30-40% above current levels. We expect improving
growth momentum to act as a catalyst for a re-rating.
• Intertek - our preferred pick – upgrading to Overweight (from Neutral)
Dec-10 PT 1780p. We view Intertek as the smaller, nimbler TIC player. In
our view the stock offers the best growth potential in the sector, as shown in
the proposed DNV transaction. The valuation is not demanding, with
EV/sales, EV/EBIT and PER multiples of 1.78x, 10.3x and 15.3x at a c10%
discount to SGS and in-line with BV. We believe that Intertek’s sectorbeating
resilience, more upbeat FY10E guidance and growth potential
deserve a premium valuation. The recent share performance (+20% YTD)
may limit near term gains, but we think that Overweight is the right call on
our 6-12 month recommendation timeframe.
• Bureau Veritas (“BV”) – remain Neutral Dec-10 PT