【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月全球烈性酒行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：

We see M&A as a positive for the spirits
industry, especially for Diageo (OW,
target 1,175p), which we see adopting a
more aggressive yet pragmatic attitude
􀀗 The MH part of LVMH (Neutral (V), target
EUR75 (from EUR68)) and Rémy
Cointreau (downgrade to Neutral (V) from
OW(V), target EUR38 (from EUR34)) look
to us unlikely targets on a three-year view
􀀗 Pernod Ricard (OW(V), target EUR68), a
European Super Ten stock, and Diageo
remain our preferred plays while we feel
challenges persist for Brown-Forman
(UW, USD41) and Constellation Brands
(UW, USD11)
Consolidation speaks volumes
“Premiumisation” was a very well marketed concept (as well as
a reality) developed by the main players in the spirits industry.
While the phenomenon was, we believe, too quickly written off,
we consider premiumisation is far from dead and will continue
to fuel growth in the sector. We also view M&A as another
positive growth vector for spirits. With distribution channels in
place, companies need to find ways to feed them via organic
growth (which we see coming back in 2010) as well as
acquisitions (likely, in our view as well in 2010).
While Pernod Ricard stands out as the latest consolidator to
have made a bold call (acquiring Absolut at 21x EBITDA), we
now believe Diageo is the best placed to extend its reach.
However, we do not expect MH and Rémy to be likely potential
targets for Diageo as we discussed in Moët Hennessy: LVMH
disposing of MH does not make sense (30 April 2009).
Rémy Cointreau was unfairly punished earlier in 2009 but the
stock has doubled since March and we believe only a
speculative premium could justify significant upside from here.
We downgrade the stock to Neutral. We remain Overweight on
both long-term consolidators (Pernod Ricard (V) and Diageo)
but cautious on LVMH (N (V), target EUR75). US-based
companies Brown-Forman and Constellation Brands do not
have compelling investment cases in the short term, we feel.