【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲餐饮行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：
Compass and Sodexo are late cyclical
stocks, but with volume erosion now
halted, we think the risk of negative news
flow is behind us

Compass: we revise our 2010-12 EPS
forecasts up 12% on average and
upgrade the stock from N to OW with a
TP increased to 620p from 482p

Sodexo: we reiterate our OW rating and
increase our TP from EUR48 to EUR53,
given the positive news flow we expect in
the months ahead
Very comparable just a few years ago, Compass and Sodexo are
now following different paths. Compass today is a pure catering
play with limited development in support services at present, while
Sodexo presents itself as a fully integrated provider offering a wide
range of services. In short, the two stocks have two different
investment profiles.
In the short term, Compass wins, in our view
Compass has been able to identify and remedy loss-generating
centres very effectively. In the short term, we expect it to continue
delivering gradual margin improvement, anticipating a 40bp gain
to 6.9% for 2010e. Beginning in 2011e, we expect to see a gradual
recovery in volumes and a return to historically high retention rates.
Coupled with the company's cost efficiency programme, we
believe those factors will create enough operating leverage for
Compass to achieve its medium-term margin goal of 8.5%, while
significantly boosting its generation of cash flow. Accordingly, we
revise our 2010-12 EPS forecasts up 12% on average and upgrade
the stock from Neutral to Overweight with a target price of 620p
vs. 482p previously.
Sodexo, the long-term bet
In our view, Sodexo’s reinvestment strategy of the past several
years is beginning to bear fruit. The company has secured new
growth vectors while lowering its exposure to the most mature
segments. We expect the news flow to improve as of H2 2010 with
1/ announcements of new contracts and 2/ the IPO of Accor
Services scheduled for this summer. Sodexo remains our preferred
name with a long-term view in this sector. We reiterate our
Overweight rating and raise our target price to EUR53 (vs. EUR48
previously).

outsourcing fuels a growing
market 3
Preparing for the recovery with
cost cuts and productivity gains 6
Why the broad margin spread
between the two groups? 11
Valuation 14
Companies 19
Compass remains a strong
performer 20
Sodexo, a longer term
investment 28
Disclosure appendix 40
Disclaimer 43