【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国运动服装行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
We remain positive; China Dongxiang and Belle top picks
We remain positive on the sportswear sector in China, despite its outperformance
YTD. We believe SSS growth should become a more important growth driver than
simple network expansion. We expect the current margin gap between brands
and retailers to narrow, and strong retailers such as Belle should be a key
beneficiary longer term. We have recently upgraded Belle to Buy and maintain our
Buy recommendation on China Dongxiang and Anta.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
China Dongxiang (3818.HK),HKD5.09 Buy
Belle Int'l Holding (1880.HK),HKD10.40 Buy
Anta (2020.HK),HKD13.36 Buy
Companies featured
Anta (2020.HK),HKD13.36 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 15.2 23.4 19.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 17.3 13.8
Price/book (x) 1.8 5.8 5.2
China Dongxiang (3818.HK),HKD5.09 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 14.8 14.9 12.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 8.6 6.6
Price/book (x) 4.1 3.2 2.9
Li Ning Co Ltd (2331.HK),HKD28.95 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 19.1 22.9 18.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 13.8 11.0
Price/book (x) 10.1 7.8 6.2
Belle Int'l Holding (1880.HK),HKD10.40 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 18.6 24.5 20.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 16.1 12.7
Price/book (x) 4.4 4.4 3.7
Upcoming events Date
Anta 4Q10 trade fair
Jinjiang, Fujian province 6 Mar 2010
Xtep 4Q10 trade fair
Xiamen, Fujian province 7 Apr 2010
China DX 4Q10 trade fair
Beijing 12 Mar 2010
Global Markets Research Company
Sector outperforms
The sportswear sector has outperformed the market by 13% and other Chinese
consumer names by 34% since we turned positive on the sector in our FITT report
The Law of the Jungle published on 24 November.
2009 wrap up
The 2009 results season saw most Hong Kong-listed sportswear names reporting
in-line or better-than-expected results. While the NP boost from lower A&P
expenses should be a one-off for 2009, we are pleased to see the key sportswear
names under our coverage demonstrated good control over working capital and
reported strong cash flow during the period. Some smaller names suffered
lengthening AR days, despite strong P&L growth. We view this as a warning sign
of the health of cash flow along the supply chain.
2010 growth outlook – steady recovery
We believe the sector is on a steady track for recovery. SSS growth in general
picked up QoQ in 1Q10, though some brands, especially those with a high portion
of apparel sales, were negatively affected by a colder spring in northern China. We
expect the upward trend to continue in the next two quarters, on the back of
improving retail sentiment and an easier base in 2009. The next data point for the
sector is the 4Q10 trade fairs, which will be held in early to mid-.May for most of
the brands. We expect to see similar/slightly better growth vs 3Q10. A recent
government stimulus policy on the sports industry has encouraged investment in
sports facilities, especially in lower-tier cities and rural areas, which we believe
support sportswear companies’ expansion into those areas.
Leading retailers to benefit longer term
We believe 2010 should mark a turning point in the growth strategies of listed
sportswear names, and that companies should focus more on SSS growth than
new store openings. We believe control over retail operations should become a
key competence for sportswear brands’ long-term sustainable growth. Strong
retailers should benefit from industry consolidation and a change in brands’
strategies. We identify Belle as one of the key beneficiaries.
Remain positive on the sector; top picks China Dongxiang and Belle
We remain positive on the sector’s risk-return profile, despite recent
outperformance. The sector is still trading at a 35% discount to other Chinese
consumer names, despite a similar growth profile. We value the sector using DCF
and PEG. Our top picks are China Dongxiang and Belle. Key risks are competition
on network expansion and marketing resources from smaller players, and
international brands’ aggressive expansion into lower-tier cities resulting in keener
competition for local brands.

Table of Contents
Sector outperforms YTD ................................................................... 3
Valuation and sector call ...........................................................................................................3
Sector catalyst: Improving quarterly SSS growth and upcoming 4Q10 trade fairs ...................5
Top picks: Buy China Dongxiang and Belle ...............................................................................5
2009 wrap up ..................................................................................... 6
Li Ning overtakes Adidas and becomes No.2 ...........................................................................6
FY09 results in-line or beat on lower A&P spend......................................................................6
Outlook............................................................................................... 7
From extensive growth to intensive growth .............................................................................7
Key future competence: Control over retail operation ..............................................................8
Sports stimulus policies issued by Chinese government........................................................10
Recent development of sportswear retailing ..........................................................................10
Appendix A....................................................................................... 16