【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国中国婴幼儿配方奶粉行业研究报告
        【作者】：元大京华
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：
China Infant Formula Industry
The land of Milk & Money
Initiate coverage on the China infant formula industry: We initiate
coverage on the China infant formula industry with a BUY rating on
Ausnutria and a target price of HK$7.80, which implies 44% upside.
► China’s infant formula industry – the party is just beginning: Infant
formula consumption in China continues to grow. We forecast that the
infant formula market in China will experience a CAGR of 20% in
2010-14F, with market value increasing to at least RMB64 bn in
2014F from RMB30 bn in 2009. We believe total consumption will be
driven by an increase in both volume and ASP.
► We expect leading players to enjoy healthy margins from 2010
onwards: We note that leading infant formula players in China not only
have longer-term contracts with raw milk powder providers but also
operate at a higher level of efficiency than mid- and small-sized
regional players. Therefore, leading players are usually able to
maintain gross and operating margins at stable and healthy levels
thanks to better controls against cost inflation.
► Doctors are the key marketing target: We see OTC pharmacy and
doctors’ recommendations as the key in influencing parents’
purchasing decisions. International brands have been more focused
on marketing to doctors, while domestic brands are increasing their
focus on this important marketing target.
► Consolidation, which leads to higher valuations, is inevitable in the
next few years: Although we believe the high-end premium infant
formula market will experience higher growth than the mainstream,
we note that this segment is getting crowded and is dominated by five
leading international brands with a combined market share of over
70%. We expect these brands to either launch mainstream brands to
gain share or to acquire other leading domestic brands.
BUY Ausnutria: Our TP of HK$7.80 is derived from the average of 1)
forward PER; and 2) DCF analysis. We forecast 2010F EPS of HK$0.35 and
2011F EPS of HK$0.43, with 28% earnings CAGR in 2010–14F.
Table of contents
Executive summary ............................................................................................... 3
Infant formula, a RMB64 bn market by 2014.......................................................... 7
Leading players see margin expansion ................................................................ 13
All about distribution, not just the formula.......................................................... 16
Consolidation inevitable in 2010 ......................................................................... 19
Shortage of raw milk won’t last forever................................................................ 25
Risks to the China infant formula market............................................................. 28
Ausnutria Dairy (1717 HK)............................................................30
Investment thesis................................................................................................ 31
Valuation ............................................................................................................ 33
Premium infant formula – outpacing overall industry growth................................ 40
Ausnutria: Well-positioned in the premium infant formula sector ........................ 42
Earnings and operating outlook........................................................................... 44
The golden lining for top-line growth.................................................................. 47
Mild margin expansion in 2010-14F ................................................................... 53
Marketing and distribution.................................................................................. 57
Financial strength ............................................................................................... 60
Risks to our investment thesis............................................................................. 61
Company profile ................................................................................................. 62
Company structure.............................................................................................. 64