这是我在eviews里输入的方程，和设置的工具变量~~~


c01=c(1)+c(2)*y+c(3)*c01(-1)
I=c(4)+c(5)*(y(-1)-y(-2))+c(6)*y+c(7)*r(-4)
r=c(8)+c(9)*y+c(10)*(y-y(-1))+c(11)*(m-m(-1))+c(12)*(r(-1)+r(-2))
@inst y(-2) y(-1) c01(-1) m m(-1) r(-1) r(-2) r(-4)


可是结果却显示
System: WYB   
Estimation Method: Two-Stage Least Squares   
Date: 05/15/10   Time: 13:46   
Sample: 1951Q1 1985Q1   
Included observations: 132   
Total system (balanced) observations 396   
   
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  
   
C(1) -10.93435 8.480295 -1.289383 0.1980
C(2) 0.056767 0.028372 2.000771 0.0461
C(3) 0.922402 0.041787 22.07410 0.0000
C(4) -26.59633 9.660683 -2.753049 0.0062
C(5) 0.352400 0.085861 4.104318 0.0000
C(6) 0.175169 0.004024 43.53296 0.0000
C(7) -0.000266 0.000346 -0.769064 0.4423
C(8) -741.4037 2543.606 -0.291477 0.7708
C(9) 0.353270 1.113485 0.317265 0.7512
C(10) 56.23330 55.41323 1.014799 0.3108
C(11) -260.3434 184.0887 -1.414228 0.1581
C(12) 0.049824 0.065763 0.757637 0.4491
   
Determinant residual covariance  1.40E+13  
   
   
Equation: C01=C(1)+C(2)*Y+C(3)*C01(-1)     
Instruments: Y(-2) Y(-1) C01(-1) M M(-1) R(-1) R(-2) R(-4) C   
Observations: 132   
R-squared 0.998870     Mean dependent var  1424.544
Adjusted R-squared 0.998852     S.D. dependent var  467.2431
S.E. of regression 15.83112     Sum squared resid  32330.56
Durbin-Watson stat 2.336351   
   
Equation: I=C(4)+C(5)*(Y(-1)-Y(-2))+C(6)*Y+C(7)*R(-4)     
Instruments: Y(-2) Y(-1) C01(-1) M M(-1) R(-1) R(-2) R(-4) C   
Observations: 132   
R-squared 0.940429     Mean dependent var  387.7235
Adjusted R-squared 0.939033     S.D. dependent var  125.9651
S.E. of regression 31.10272     Sum squared resid  123824.5
Durbin-Watson stat 0.496897   
   
Equation: R=C(8)+C(9)*Y+C(10)*(Y-Y(-1))+C(11)*(M-M(-1))+C(12)*(R(-1)   
        +R(-2))     
Instruments: Y(-2) Y(-1) C01(-1) M M(-1) R(-1) R(-2) R(-4) C   
Observations: 132   
R-squared -0.034991     Mean dependent var  1076.943
Adjusted R-squared -0.067589     S.D. dependent var  7894.573
S.E. of regression 8157.006     Sum squared resid  8.45E+09
Durbin-Watson stat 1.976905   
最后一个方差的R方太小了，和书上的差别太大了，不知道哪里错了，不知道是不是工具变量设置错了，还是什么原因，请高手指点下~~~~